ExxonMobil, Chevron Executives Warn: Oil Prices May Soar in Coming Weeks
Taylor Wilson
Global oil inventories are draining at a record 8.7 million barrels per day, and top executives at both oil majors warn prices could breach $150 a barrel within weeks.
How bad is the inventory drawdown?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut Persian Gulf output by more than 50%. Goldman Sachs estimates the world is drawing down stockpiles at 8.7 million barrels per day — a record.
Cumulative supply losses since hostilities began have topped 1 billion barrels. This means → the world is burning through its reserves at an unprecedented pace.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell to 441.7 million barrels last week, roughly 2% below the five-year average. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve — the government's emergency oil stash — dropped from a pre-war 415.4 million to 365.1 million barrels, far under its 714-million-barrel design capacity.
What exactly are the oil-major executives worried about?
Exxon senior vice president Neil Chapman was blunt: "You can argue whether it's two weeks or three weeks before we hit critically low levels, but once we reach that tipping point, prices will spike."
He projected Brent crude could hit $150–160 per barrel, surpassing the all-time high. In plain terms = oil could get more expensive than anything on the historical record.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth used a different image: "The buffers and shock absorbers are being steadily depleted." The market's ability to absorb the imbalance has weakened sharply since the early days. He expects greater upward pressure from June into July.
What do the investment banks project in a worst case?
JPMorgan warned that if the Hormuz disruption persists through mid-May, Brent could break $150 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs modeled a severe-downside scenario: if the strait remains impaired through end-July, crude could top $140 a barrel.
This reflects a striking convergence — the banks' stress-test numbers and the oil executives' verbal forecasts are now in the same range. $150 is no longer alarmist; it is the institutional baseline stress test.
Oil prices have already pulled back — why still worry?
Brent currently trades around $90 a barrel, down from a mid-May peak above $110, yet year-to-date gains still exceed 50%.
The pullback is driven mainly by optimism over U.S.–Iran negotiations — reports suggest the two sides are nearing a deal that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
Put simply = the price relief rests on a bet that diplomacy will work, not on inventories actually being replenished. This means → if talks stall or collapse, prices snap back fast — the inventory gap is still widening at 8.7 million barrels a day.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.