FAO Warns El Niño Threatens Global Agriculture; China's Grain Imports May Face Pressure
Claire Weston
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that this El Niño cycle could bring over 50% drought probability across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Africa; China, the world's largest food-commodity importer, faces indirect cost pressure as global grain prices rise.
How severe is this El Niño?
The FAO says pastures in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and parts of Latin America face above-50% drought probability in the coming months.
El Niño — a recurring climate pattern where abnormal Pacific warming triggers droughts and floods worldwide — is not new. What is new: it arrives on top of a steadily warming planet.
This means → both the intensity and reach of droughts could exceed historical averages. This is not a routine El Niño.
Why does the FAO say "this time is different"?
FAO natural-resources officer Jorge Alvar-Beltran said: "Today's Earth is warmer, and conflict and food insecurity are widespread. This El Niño will hit the most fragile regions hardest."
In plain terms = in past cycles many countries could absorb the shock. Now those same countries are already at war or already short of food — another drought is a blow on top of a blow.
The FAO warns that El Niño can destroy harvests, kill livestock, and force people to migrate in search of food and water.
China isn't in the direct risk zone — why would it be affected?
The FAO does not list China as directly at risk. But Alfredo Montufar-Helu, managing director at Ankura Consulting in China, warns: when drought-hit regions lose output, they flood into global markets to buy grain, pushing prices up.
This reflects a clear indirect chain: overseas crop losses → disaster-hit nations scramble to import → global grain prices rise → China's import bill swells.
A 2025 study by the National University of Malaysia notes China has been a net agricultural importer since 2004 and is now the world's largest food-commodity buyer, importing grains and other major agricultural products.
What to watch next?
The key test comes in the next few months: whether global food supply chains can hold under the combined pressure of El Niño and geopolitical conflict.
In plain terms = if droughts spread wider and last longer than expected, the price-rise pressure shifts from "possible" to "certain" — and China's import bill gets directly heavier.
No probability call yet — the FAO has issued a risk warning, not a damage verdict.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.