Fed Chair Warsh Plans to Abstain from Dot Plot at June Meeting
Claire Weston
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may refuse to submit his rate forecast at the June FOMC meeting, effectively sitting out the dot plot — a signal that a broader overhaul of the Fed's forward-guidance apparatus is underway, with potential consequences for how markets anchor rate expectations.
What exactly is Warsh planning?
According to the Financial Times, citing several former senior Fed officials, Chair Warsh may decline to submit his personal rate projection at the June 16-17 policy meeting.
The dot plot — a quarterly chart where each official places a dot showing their rate expectation — would therefore be missing the chair's dot.
This means → Warsh is not skipping a routine exercise. He is making a deliberate statement: the chair should not telegraph future decisions — consistent with his Senate confirmation testimony.
Why does he oppose forward guidance?
Warsh has long criticized forward guidance — the practice of signaling future rate moves in advance — arguing it constrains future decision-making.
At his confirmation hearing he said explicitly: "I don't think I should be previewing for you what the future decisions might be."
In plain terms = he believes the central bank should not "spoil" its own decisions; each meeting should judge the data fresh.
Beyond the dot plot — rewriting the statement too?
Warsh may also push the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting body) to remove language in the policy statement that hints at the next rate move.
At the last meeting, three regional Fed presidents — Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari — opposed retaining the statement's "easing bias" language.
Governors Waller and Cook subsequently said they no longer support that wording either. This reflects a shift: opposition to forward guidance has spread from regional presidents to the core Board of Governors.
How is the market reacting? Sharp disagreement.
Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told the FT: the dot plot provides "a very important anchoring mechanism" — weakening it carries risk.
Guy LeBas, fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery, noted the dot plot helps "dampen rate volatility."
In plain terms = supporters worry that removing the dot plot takes away a stabilizing reference point, potentially amplifying rate swings.
One more backdrop: rate hikes are not off the table
According to the April meeting minutes, several officials said rate increases may be necessary if inflation fails to make progress toward the 2% target.
This means → the market's base-case "rate-cut path" is not locked in; the Fed internally still holds open the option to hike.
If forward guidance is weakened at the same time that hikes remain possible, the market's task of reading the Fed's next move becomes materially harder.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.