Fertilizer Exports Resume Through Strait of Hormuz as Urea Prices Retreat
Claire Weston
After the interim U.S.–Iran peace deal, weekly fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to roughly 530,000 tonnes from near zero during the war; the biggest bottleneck in global fertilizer supply is reopening, urea prices are falling sharply, and food-inflation pressure is easing.
How much fertilizer is moving again?
Shipping-intelligence firm Kpler estimates that in the week ending June 21, fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz reached about 530,000 tonnes, approaching pre-war levels.
This means → roughly 30% of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade depends on this chokepoint, and the wartime near-total shutdown is unwinding.
Since the interim U.S.–Iran deal was signed, at least 16 fertilizer-laden vessels have transited the strait; of the 40-plus ships previously stranded in the Persian Gulf, at least 18 have departed.
Where are these ships headed — and who needs them most?
Most departing vessels are sailing toward Asia — destinations include China, India, and Sri Lanka; one is bound for Brazil.
Brazilian buyers are stocking up ahead of the September soybean planting season — fertilizer is a non-negotiable input for soy cultivation.
India, the world's largest importer of urea and DAP — diammonium phosphate, a widely used phosphate fertilizer — stands to feel the supply relief most directly in its current growing season.
Why are urea prices falling?
Fears of a prolonged supply disruption have faded fast, and urea prices have dropped sharply — a reversal of the spike that followed the outbreak of war.
In plain terms = wartime blockage drove prices up; now the shipping lane is open and cargoes are moving, so prices are coming back down.
CRU Group senior analyst Pranshi Goyal said: "As shipments resume, some of the supply pressure should ease."
This reflects a weakening of one of the biggest risk factors that had been pushing global food inflation higher.
Is supply truly back to normal?
The actual number of departures may be higher than current tallies — some stranded vessels stopped transmitting AIS position signals (the satellite-based ship-tracking system) months ago, possibly switching off transponders before leaving port and not turning them back on.
Kpler's latest tracking data shows fertilizer shipments are still recovering, but cargoes will take several more weeks to reach end-buyers.
This means → whether the supply recovery fully materialises depends on two variables: progress in implementing the deal and the pace of port clearance. The short-term relief is real; the medium-term picture still needs watching.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.