Fidelity International Plans to Rebuild Overweight Position in Gold
Alina Collins
Fidelity International's multi-asset manager Ian Samson cut gold to neutral early this year but plans to go overweight again — gold fell 14% in Q2, yet the long-term bull case remains intact, hinging on central-bank buying and the Fed's rate path.
Why isn't Fidelity overweight gold right now?
Samson trimmed gold from overweight to neutral between January and February, just as prices began retreating from a record high near $5,600 per ounce.
The Middle East war then pushed oil prices higher, shifting market expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes — and gold's decline accelerated.
This means → Fidelity didn't turn bearish on gold; it sidestepped the steepest leg down on a tactical call. Neutral is a holding pattern, not a verdict.
How far has gold fallen, and where does it sit now?
Gold dropped 14% in Q2 — its worst quarter since 2013 — and is now consolidating around the $4,000-per-ounce level.
In plain terms = from the $5,600 peak to $4,000 is roughly a 30% drawdown, yet $4,000 is still well above where gold traded two years ago.
Samson expects prices to end the year "slightly higher than now," but sees bull and bear factors roughly balanced in the near term.
What signal would trigger Fidelity to buy back in?
On the technical side, Samson named two triggers: the 50-day moving average crossing above the long-term average, or a break above $4,300 per ounce.
This means → he needs a trend-reversal confirmation, not just a fundamental conviction, before re-entering.
Put simply = it's not "buy because it looks cheap" — it's wait for the market to prove upward pressure is building.
What underpins the long-term bull case?
Samson says only one scenario breaks the thesis: "governments restore fiscal discipline and central banks genuinely push inflation back to target" — and he doesn't believe the world is heading that way.
This reflects a deeper conviction: global fiscal expansion and sticky inflation are structural trends, not cyclical swings.
He expects the gold bull market to resume at some point in 2027.
Why is central-bank buying the key variable?
A World Gold Council–YouGov survey shows the number of central banks planning to increase gold holdings this year hit a record high.
Samson's view: "If these large strategic buyers keep entering, gold prices are almost certain to be pushed higher."
This means → central-bank gold purchases are not short-term trades but part of a de-dollarisation and reserve-diversification trend — forming a structural floor under prices.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.