First Wall Street Analyst Initiates Coverage on SpaceX with $165 Price Target, Implying $2.3 Trillion Valuation
Miles Bennett
SpaceX has received its first-ever Wall Street research report before even listing — New Street Research set a $165 target price implying a $2.3 trillion equity value, signaling the market is already pricing a rocket company on the same scale as tech giants.
How did this report come out before the IPO?
New Street Research is not an underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, so it faces none of the quiet-period restrictions that bind underwriting banks.
This means → it could legally publish ahead of the listing, making this the first institutional coverage SpaceX has ever received.
Analyst Pierre Ferragu set a $165 target, roughly 22% above the $135 IPO price, but did not assign a formal buy/sell rating.
Where does the $2.3 trillion number come from?
Ferragu projects SpaceX will reach $195 billion in revenue and $65 billion in operating profit by 2030, then values the company at roughly 35× that expected profit.
In plain terms = he believes every dollar SpaceX earns six years from now is worth 35 dollars today — nearly triple Alphabet's comparable multiple of about 13×.
This reflects a bet that SpaceX's growth rate will still be far ahead of Google's parent company by decade's end — otherwise the premium cannot hold.
What are the two biggest pieces inside that valuation?
Starlink-related businesses account for $650 billion — the largest single block. Satellite internet is already generating revenue.
AI-related businesses follow at $575 billion. This means → the market is already buying SpaceX's "space data center" thesis.
The core logic behind the AI slice comes from Musk himself: he argues that space-based data centers will cost less to operate than ground-based ones in the near future. In a bull case, Ferragu sees the stock reaching $330.
What are the pre-listing market signals?
On Wednesday evening, SpaceX stock futures on crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid traded at $163 — closely matching Ferragu's $165 target.
In plain terms = this is not a formal stock exchange, but the "off-market" price landing almost exactly on the analyst's figure suggests expectations are already tightly clustered.
Hyperliquid offers perpetual futures contracts — a type of derivative with no expiry date — which differ fundamentally from regulated secondary-market trading. SpaceX's real price action will only become clear after Friday's official listing.
How credible is this analyst?
Ferragu is a long-standing Tesla bull, currently carrying a buy rating and a $600 target on the stock — the same target as Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.
This means → he has a consistently optimistic lean on Musk-affiliated companies — a bias readers should factor in when weighing this report.
As SpaceX's first institutional coverage, the report's larger significance is that it sets the valuation anchor: subsequent analysts will debate around this number.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.