Forecasting Increased Market Regulation: India Blocks Polymarket, South Korea Initiates Review

Forecasting the globalization of the market is entering a more complex phase. The expansion of user scale, the popularity of election contracts, and the proliferation of encrypted payments have amplified the platform's influence, making it difficult for regulatory agencies to avoid the issue of legal qualification any longer.

In the platform's own narrative, the prediction market is a price discovery mechanism for information aggregation through trading contracts; however, in the view of regulatory departments in India, South Korea, and elsewhere, it is closer to online gambling where users bet on event outcomes with real money. This core qualification difference directly determines the platform's compliance path: if regarded as a financial market tool, the focus of regulation is on trading rules, customer protection, anti-money laundering, and market manipulation; if qualified as gambling, it may face access blocking, licensing restrictions, or even a complete ban.

Regulatory divergence is becoming the real cost of the global expansion of the prediction market.

India Bans Polymarket, Kalshi May Be Next Target

Polymarket is currently inaccessible within India, with the page indicating "This site can't be reached," and the issue persists after refreshing. According to CoinDesk, the access disruption occurred after the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) sent a notice to VPN service providers on April 25.

The notice requires internet service providers to cut off access to "illegal and blocked prediction markets and online gambling platforms," with Polymarket being a primary target. Under the 2025 Online Gaming Promotion and Regulation Act, India has included prediction markets in the regulation framework for online real-money gaming and categorized them as completely prohibited.

Its competitor, Kalshi, which is regulated by the U.S. CFTC, is still accessible in India, but local media, citing an anonymous source from MeitY, stated that a blocking order against Kalshi could be issued as early as this Friday (May 23).

On May 20, the Finance Standing Committee of India's Parliament met with representatives from platforms such as Binance, WazirX, Zebpay, etc., in Delhi, focusing on the regulation and taxation of virtual digital assets and expressing strong concern about the massive capital outflows generated through encrypted channels.

South Korea: Reviewing for Involvement in Illegal Gambling

Apart from India, South Korea has also initiated a review of Polymarket. According to Bloomberg, the Korea Communications Standards Commission, which is responsible for regulating broadcasting and online media, is assessing whether Polymarket contains illegal gambling content and has entered a formal review process.

A commission spokesperson told Bloomberg that the focus of the review is whether Polymarket's services constitute gambling or violate South Korean domestic laws, but did not disclose specific details or an end time. South Korea enforces strict restrictions on gambling, with legal channels limited to government-authorized horse racing and sports betting, among others.

It is worth noting that this review takes place on the eve of South Korea's local elections. Contracts linked to the results of South Korea's June local elections have already appeared on Polymarket, where users can bet using cryptocurrencies.

Japan: Restricting While Being a Target for Expansion

While regulatory pressure is increasing, Polymarket is still laying out long-term opportunities in Asia. According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, Polymarket has appointed representatives in Japan to lobby the Japanese government to approve prediction markets, with the goal of obtaining regulatory approval by 2030. The company sees Japan as a large commercial opportunity that has not yet been fully developed.

Currently, Polymarket is not actively promoting its services in Japan. Due to the strict local gambling restrictions, its website and app prevent Japanese users from placing bets due to "regulatory requirements."

The Japanese penal code has long maintained a strict stance on gambling—habitual gambling can be sentenced to up to three years in prison, and operating a gambling business can be sentenced to up to five years in prison, with only government-authorized projects such as horse racing and lotteries being exceptions. Representatives of the Japanese Ministry of Justice refused to comment on the legality of prediction markets, only stating that they need to be examined on a case-by-case basis in conjunction with the penal code.