French Parliament Unanimously Rejects 2027 Budget as Nationwide Strike Erupts Simultaneously
nashnova research
France's National Assembly unanimously rejected the 2027 budget bill as a nationwide strike brought hundreds of thousands into the streets — the government will likely force the budget through via constitutional powers, but the deficit target is almost certainly out of reach.
Why was the budget rejection "expected"?
The National Assembly voted unanimously Wednesday evening to reject PM Lecornu's 2027 budget bill.
ING senior economist Charlotte de Montpellier put it bluntly: "Nobody believed the budget could pass because parliament is so fragmented."
This means → since the 2024 snap election produced a hung parliament — no party holds a majority — the normal legislative path has effectively broken down. The vote was a formality.
The budget failed — what can the government do?
Article 49.3 of the constitution — a clause letting the government bypass parliament and force legislation through — is the ready-made tool. Lecornu already used it to push through the 2026 budget.
But French media report the government may turn to an even rarer mechanism: enacting the budget by decree, something with no precedent in Fifth Republic history.
In plain terms = the parliamentary route is closed. The government's only option is a constitutional back door — the question is which one, and how high the political price.
Even if the budget is forced through, can the deficit come down?
The government aims to cut €54 billion (≈$61.8 billion) in spending to shrink the deficit sharply.
De Montpellier was unequivocal: "The budget targets will not be met, no matter what." Growth is far weaker than forecast; the savings required are simply unrealistic.
France's 2025 fiscal deficit already stands at 5.1% of GDP; public debt equals 115.6% of GDP. This means → the debt burden is already heavy, the deficit is still elevated, and rising borrowing costs will not ease just because a budget clears procedurally.
What is happening on the streets?
Large-scale protests have escalated since late September, turning to riots and looting in late October — estimated losses exceed €1 billion.
Thursday's nationwide strike saw demonstrators carrying signs reading "Against a France controlled by the markets." Tear gas was deployed in Lyon; 70,000 police and gendarmes were mobilised nationwide.
This reflects a fiscal-austerity and cost-of-living pressure that has spilled from parliamentary debate into the streets — the government now faces a paralysed legislature, bond-market pressure, and public unrest simultaneously.
What to watch next?
Key question one: can the government force the budget through without triggering a new no-confidence motion?
Key question two: can France's deficit trajectory narrow enough for the bond market to tolerate?
Put simply = whether the budget passes is a procedural matter. The real question is — where does the money get saved, will markets buy it, and can the streets be calmed?
市场有风险,内容仅供研究参考,不构成投资建议。
