Ganfeng Lithium Expects to Swing to Profit in H1, Net Profit Up to 4.6 Billion Yuan
nashnova research
Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) guided H1 2026 net profit at RMB 3.65–4.6 billion, swinging from a RMB 531 million loss a year ago. The turnaround rests on recovering lithium prices and mine ramp-ups cutting unit costs — but whether prices hold in H2 will set the tone for the full year.
How big is the swing?
H1 2025: net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of RMB 531 million. H1 2026 guidance: RMB 3.65–4.6 billion profit — a gap of over RMB 5 billion at the top end.
Strip out one-off gains and the core-business profit (non-GAAP) is guided at RMB 3.0–4.2 billion, versus a loss of RMB 913 million a year earlier. This means → even without asset sales, the operating business itself is back in the black.
The gap between headline and core profit comes mainly from selling part of its stake in Australia-listed PLS Group and higher income from joint ventures. In plain terms = Ganfeng cashed in some overseas equity on the side — it flatters the headline number but is not recurring.
Why did lithium prices recover?
The filing cites rising lithium-salt prices as the top driver — downstream demand from EVs and energy storage kept growing, lifting market sentiment.
At the same time, several of Ganfeng's lithium-mine and salt-lake projects entered volume production, bringing unit costs down as scale kicked in.
This means → the turnaround is a triple stack — price up, volume up, cost down — not a pure price bounce. That structure is more durable than a rally driven by pricing alone.
What did the battery segment contribute?
The filing notes that lithium-battery production and sales volumes rose significantly, driven by growing demand in energy storage and related sectors.
In plain terms = Ganfeng is not just a raw-material supplier of lithium ore and salts — it also makes batteries. That segment is scaling too, giving the company a second revenue leg.
What is the biggest question for H2?
The filing itself flags the key risk: whether lithium prices can hold current levels through the second half will determine full-year earnings durability.
This reflects a management team that is not unconditionally bullish — H1 profits rode a lithium-price tailwind, and any price retreat would trim the recovery's magnitude.
For investors, the focus should shift from "turnaround or not" to H2 average lithium-salt prices and the mine-side cost curve — those two lines will decide where full-year profit lands within the guided range.
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