Gao Shanwen, Former Chief Economist of Guotou Securities, Passes Away at 55 Due to Illness
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Gao Shanwen, former chief economist of Guotou Securities (国投证券), has died of illness at 55. He was widely regarded as one of China's most influential macro economists, best known for his "asset revaluation theory" first proposed in 2006.
Who was Gao Shanwen?
Born in 1971 in Linfen, Shanxi. He graduated from Peking University and the Graduate School of the People's Bank of China.
He joined Everbright Securities as chief economist in 2003, then moved to Essence Securities in the same role in 2007.
After Essence Securities was renamed Guotou Securities in December 2023, he stayed on as chief economist until leaving in November 2025.
What is the "asset revaluation theory"?
In March 2006, Gao publicly argued that when rapid credit expansion coexists with industrial overcapacity, broad asset prices — stocks and real estate alike — could undergo a major revaluation.
In plain terms = too much money was being printed while factories sat idle, so the excess liquidity would flood into equities and property, pushing prices sharply higher.
The A-share market subsequently rallied hard. His call gained wide recognition, and the underlying framework was later collected in his books *Erta Prospera* and *The Logic of How the Economy Works*.
How did peers assess his work?
Industry figures credited Gao with building an independent analytical framework spanning inflation mechanics, capacity-cycle dynamics, and asset-price behavior.
His asset revaluation theory was considered "the most mature and best-known" part of that body of work.
His 2013 book *The Logic of How the Economy Works* became a bestseller in finance that year, offering a systematic treatment of inflation, business cycles, and asset revaluation.
How did he view economic analysis itself?
Gao once summed up the limits of macro forecasting with a self-deprecating couplet: "Explaining the past — coherent and seemingly sound; Predicting the future — evasive and shockingly wrong." The banner across the top read: "Economic Analysis."
This reflects a veteran practitioner's clear-eyed honesty about the uncertainty inherent in macro prediction.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.