Germany Secretly Maps China's Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
N.R. Finch
Germany is secretly assessing how dependent China is on German and European technology, aiming to build negotiating leverage in a potential EU–China trade conflict. This means → Europe is shifting from passive defense to actively counting its own cards.
What exactly is Germany mapping?
The German government is quietly analyzing China's reliance on German and European technology, components, and industrial know-how.
The goal: if an EU–China trade war erupts, Berlin wants quantifiable bargaining chips ready.
This effort is one of 34 classified measures under Germany's National Security Council, triggered by China's weaponization of critical raw materials last year — the Nexperia case set the precedent.
Which companies have been flagged?
Preliminary findings single out Trumpf SE (laser equipment) and Carl Zeiss AG (optical instruments) — both are critical suppliers for ASML's advanced lithography machines.
In plain terms = without Trumpf's lasers and Zeiss's lenses, ASML cannot build its lithography systems; these two firms sit at the very top of the chipmaking bottleneck.
The report may also cover Siltronic AG (silicon wafers), Aixtron SE (compound-semiconductor equipment), and SUSS MicroTec SE (lithography-process tools).
What is the most powerful card?
Berlin's assessment concludes the strongest lever is not just halting new equipment exports — it is suspending maintenance and technical support for machines already operating in China.
This means → even without selling a single new tool, cutting off servicing alone could gradually disable installed equipment.
ASML is already barred from shipping its most advanced lithography machines to China, but a large installed base of older models still runs there, dependent on ongoing maintenance, spare parts, and technical support.
What else is on the table beyond chips?
The assessment extends to advanced patented medical products — China's dependence in this area is rising as its population ages.
Officials note this option is the most politically and ethically sensitive, because it could directly affect patients.
Rare earths are also part of the discussion. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said this month: "Interdependence exists, but it runs both ways."
Does Germany want a fight or a negotiation?
German officials stress this is not a hostile China policy — Berlin remains committed to economic cooperation.
The aim is to negotiate from a position of strength when necessary, pushing for a more balanced economic relationship.
This reflects a broader European logic shift — not decoupling, but counting your own chips before sitting down at the table.
How are the companies responding?
Trumpf's spokesperson said the company does not supply strategically significant products to China.
Carl Zeiss said it maintains regular dialogue with authorities; "cooperation follows legal requirements."
Other named companies either did not respond or declined to comment on meetings with officials; the German government said its China policy is unchanged and there are no plans to forcibly collect corporate data.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.