Germany's September Factory Orders Rise 4.4% MoM, Partially Offsetting Prior Month's Decline
nashnova research
German factory orders rose 4.4% month-on-month in September, clawing back part of August's 10.1% plunge; the rebound aligns with a fourth straight quarter of GDP growth, but rising energy costs are eating into the recovery's foundations.
How much did September actually recover?
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted factory orders rose 4.4% in September, after an 10.1% drop in August.
This means → September recouped less than half of August's decline; orders remain in net contraction.
Forecasts diverged: the WSJ survey expected 4.3% (a slight beat), while the Reuters poll expected 4.8% (a miss by that measure).
What is still holding German industry up?
Third-quarter GDP grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter — the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth.
The October manufacturing PMI — a monthly gauge of factory activity — showed continued expansion, though the pace slowed.
Two external tailwinds helped: sustained government spending on infrastructure and defence underpins demand, while Middle Eastern competitors facing greater disruption have redirected some orders to Germany.
What is the biggest risk beneath the rebound?
The longer Middle Eastern energy-supply disruptions persist, the greater the threat to German manufacturers — the country's industrial base depends on stable, affordable energy.
October PMI data showed factory input-price inflation at a five-month high.
In plain terms = orders are warming, but production costs are rising too; if energy prices keep climbing, the profit from rebounding orders gets consumed by higher input costs.
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