Global Central Banks Net Gold Purchases Hit 321 Tonnes in Q3, Fastest Pace Since Late 2024
nashnova research
Central banks net-purchased 321 tonnes of gold in Q3, the fastest clip since late 2024 — yet gold prices have fallen roughly a quarter since February, leaving official buying and market pricing pointing in opposite directions.
Why are central banks buying more as prices fall?
The World Gold Council (WGC) reports Q3 central-bank net purchases of 321 tonnes, bringing the nine-month total to 675 tonnes — slightly above last year's pace.
WGC strategist John Reade cites two drivers: lower gold prices made buying feel cheaper, and a stronger dollar paradoxically made gold more attractive to central banks who expect the dollar to weaken long-term.
In plain terms = if you think the dollar will eventually fall and you're sitting on short-dated Treasuries about to mature, converting those expensive dollars into gold right now looks like a good deal.
Who is buying — and who is selling?
The quarter's largest disclosed buyers were China (+63 tonnes) and Poland (+41 tonnes). The main seller was Russia (−19 tonnes).
This means → the heaviest buyers fall into two camps: reserve diversifiers (China) and countries near geopolitical fault lines seeking hard assets (Poland).
Roughly two-thirds of central-bank purchases were never publicly disclosed by the buying authorities. The figures come from consultancy Metals Focus, which estimates them through trade data and field research.
Gold is down a quarter — where is the pressure coming from?
Since the outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February, gold prices have dropped roughly 25%.
This means → war pushed energy costs up, markets repriced monetary policy tighter, and higher rate expectations directly weigh on a zero-yield asset like gold.
In plain terms = gold pays no interest. The higher rates go, the bigger the opportunity cost of holding it, and the more capital flows away.
ETF inflows are booming, jewellery demand is collapsing — what shifted?
Gold ETF holdings rose 211 tonnes in Q3, a record high — financial investors are adding exposure.
But jewellery demand fell 17% year-on-year to 313 tonnes, the weakest Q3 since WGC records began in 2000. Tax-policy changes in India and China, combined with high prices, pushed consumers toward lighter, lower-carat pieces.
This reflects a fracturing buyer base: institutions and central banks are stockpiling; ordinary consumers are stepping back.
What is happening on the supply side?
Q3 mine output rose 3% year-on-year to 1,071 tonnes, a single-quarter record.
Recycled gold fell 8% to 314 tonnes, the lowest since 2023 — holders are reluctant to sell at depressed prices.
Chinese bar-and-coin demand bucked the trend, rising 7% to 79 tonnes; the nine-month total hit 393 tonnes, a record. This means → Chinese retail investors and the PBoC are betting the same way: buy gold.
What should we watch next?
The key variable is singular: can central-bank buying continue to offset the downward pressure from high rates and high oil prices?
If rate expectations keep climbing, gold's holding cost rises further. But if central banks sustain purchases above 300 tonnes per quarter, a price floor holds.
In plain terms = this is a tug-of-war between central-bank conviction and market interest rates. Whichever side lets go first determines which way the price moves.
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