Global Gas Turbine Q2 Orders Hit Record High; Major Banks Say Industry Entering "Super Cycle"
Taylor Wilson
Global gas turbine orders reached 38 GW in Q2 2025 — a single-quarter record, up 71% year-on-year. Multiple major banks now call this a 'super cycle': the supply-demand gap exceeds 50 GW, and top makers are booked through 2030.
How big is a 38 GW quarter?
JPMorgan's latest report puts Q2 global gas turbine orders at roughly 38 GW — up 29% quarter-on-quarter and 71% year-on-year.
The U.S. alone accounted for nearly half of all orders, remaining the single largest market.
Three manufacturers captured the bulk: Siemens Energy ~12.5 GW led, GE ~11.3 GW followed, Mitsubishi Power ~5.3 GW came third.
This means → gas turbines are no longer optional — they are the hard currency of the AI infrastructure arms race.
Who is buying all these turbines?
The core driver is data-center expansion. The IEA warns global data-center power consumption will rise from ~415 TWh in 2024 to ~945 TWh by 2030, a ~15% compound annual growth rate.
Morgan Stanley data shows the U.S. data-center power gap has surged to 55 GW; many compute projects face delays because the grid cannot connect them fast enough.
In plain terms = AI needs compute, compute needs power, the grid can't keep up — gas turbines are the only option that can close the gap quickly.
Why can't supply keep up?
The market estimates 2025 global demand above 100 GW, rising to 117 GW in 2026 — but supply sits at only 50–60 GW, leaving a gap exceeding 50 GW.
Manufacturing barriers are extremely high; capacity expansion lags badly. Siemens Energy stated explicitly that current industry expansion is "very rational" and that scaling industrial gas turbines cannot change the supply-demand imbalance.
This reflects a structural shortage — not a temporary mismatch. Manufacturers simply cannot ramp fast enough.
How much have prices risen?
Melius Research estimates gas turbine prices have risen roughly 300% over the past three years.
JPMorgan adds: a combined-cycle gas turbine — a unit that runs both a gas and a steam turbine together for higher efficiency — scheduled for 2031 delivery will cost three times what an equivalent unit delivered last year cost.
This means → the later you order, the more you pay. Forward contracts are already pricing in a queue premium.
What cards do the market leaders hold?
GE Vernova reported Q1 revenue of $9.339 billion, up 16% year-on-year; adjusted EBITDA hit $896 million, nearly doubling.
Management said backlog is expected to reach 100 GW by the end of 2026, adding that "capacity for 2029 and 2030 will also be nearly fully booked."
Siemens Energy raised its annual industry demand forecast from 90–100 GW to 110–120 GW and said it sees no sign of demand slowing.
In plain terms = the leaders' order books stretch five to six years out. The seller's market is locked in.
Where is the risk in this 'super cycle'?
Gas turbines offer round-the-clock stable dispatch, millisecond-level peaking response, and a 12-to-18-month build cycle — a fit for data centers that need power fast.
But the flip side of rising manufacturer pricing power is mounting cost pressure on downstream power developers.
This means → whether this expansion cycle can keep delivering hinges on one question: can power developers pass the price increases through to end-user electricity tariffs? If they cannot, order growth will eventually peak.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.