Global Risk Sentiment Rebounds: Intel Surges Nearly 9%, Gold Hits $4,300
Miles Bennett
Trump signed a ceasefire MOU with Iran, raising hopes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Oil fell over 2% and chip stocks led pre-market gains — fading geopolitical risk is offsetting the Fed's hawkish signal and repricing global risk assets.
What exactly did the US-Iran deal deliver?
Trump signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) — a non-binding preliminary framework — with Iran at the Palace of Versailles near Paris. A US official said it took effect immediately.
Whether Iran has begun fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments — remains unclear.
This means → The deal's core value is not its fine print but the sharp reduction in "war-escalation" tail risk, which is what markets are repricing.
Oil dropped — has the energy risk really gone?
Brent crude fell over 2%, slipping below $78 a barrel — the market voting that the war premium is fading.
But Goldman Sachs estimates post-war oil flows through Hormuz may recover to only 70% of capacity; inventories at Cushing — the largest US commercial crude storage hub — have dropped to roughly 20 million barrels, near the operational minimum.
In plain terms = Oil is cheaper today, but the supply bottleneck hasn't disappeared — the kindling under inflation is still there.
Why are semiconductors leading the entire rally?
Intel surged nearly 9% pre-market. The direct catalyst: Trump announced Apple and Intel have partnered to design and manufacture chips on US soil.
Micron rose over 4%, AMD nearly 3%, Western Digital and ARM nearly 5%, ASML nearly 3%, Marvell nearly 4% — a broad sector rally.
This means → The market is reading more than a single deal — it sees the US chip-reshoring policy narrative escalating again, and capital is adding exposure across the entire semiconductor supply chain.
What is driving Asian equities to record highs?
The Nikkei 225 rose 1.65% to close at 71,053.49, breaking above 71,000 for the first time; South Korea's KOSPI climbed 2.25% to 9,063.84 — both all-time highs.
SK Hynix surged over 7%, closing at KRW 2.712 million, another record — tech stocks provided the main thrust.
Vantage analyst Hebe Chen noted: the Fed's hawkish tone still weighs on sentiment, but the sharp drop in oil helps offset fresh inflation fears, giving investors room to push back against the "higher-for-longer rates" narrative.
What is the Fed thinking, and how is the market responding?
The Fed held rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting, but the dot plot — an anonymous survey of officials' rate projections — showed roughly half expect a hike this year.
Traders have now fully priced in a rate hike before October — in other words, the question is not "if" but "when."
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose about 5 basis points after the decision, then fell 4 bp to 4.45%; the policy-sensitive 2-year yield eased 2 bp to 4.16%.
This reflects the bond market finding a temporary equilibrium between the hawkish signal and fading geopolitical risk.
How are currencies, gold, and emerging markets moving?
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%; the yen fell to its weakest since July 2024, raising intervention fears — even though the Bank of Japan this week raised its benchmark rate to the highest since 1995, markets see the tightening as insufficient.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,305.73 an ounce; silver also gained over 1%. Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $63,824.33.
Economists widely expect Indonesia's and the Philippines' central banks to each hike 25 basis points on Thursday; the Bank of England is expected to hold.
In plain terms = Gold up, dollar slightly down, emerging markets preparing to hike — capital is hedging the twin signals of a hawkish Fed and cooling geopolitical tension.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.