GLP-1 Transition Pains, HIMS to Present Transformation Answer

Hims & Hers Health will release its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 after the market closes today, Eastern Time, followed by a conference call. The company officially confirmed this timing on April 13th. The financial results coincide with the most intense strategic shift window for GLP-1 weight loss business, and the market needs to see the cost of this transformation.

Expected numbers: A significant slowdown in growth rate, profitability is nearly halved

Analyst consensus on revenue expectations is about $616.9 million to $619.6 million, a year-over-year growth of about 5% to 6%. This figure is almost in line with the company's Q1 guidance range of $600 million to $625 million given in the Q4 2025 financial results, with the consensus slightly above the mid-point of the guidance. It should be noted that there is a significant difference in EPS expectations across different platforms: AlphaStreet's GAAP consensus from 11 analysts is $0.03 per share, while GuruFocus and MSN's adjusted EPS consensus is $0.13. In either case, it is a significant decline from the same period last year - a GAAP year-over-year decrease of about 83%. MarketBeat points out that this profit "reset" has been digested by the market to some extent, but if the actual results fall below expectations, it could accelerate selling.

The historical record is also alarming: According to GuruFocus data, HIMS has never met EPS expectations in the past year, but has consistently exceeded revenue expectations. This pattern means that whether revenue can hold or even surpass the upper limit of $625 million is more worth paying attention to than EPS itself.

Core variable: The five-week window for GLP-1 business

Last year, HIMS's rapid growth largely relied on its self-made compound semaglutide. With the FDA ruling that the short supply of semaglutide has ended, the compliant sales space for compound drugs has been directly compressed.

On March 9th, Novo Nordisk voluntarily withdrew its patent infringement lawsuit against HIMS, and the two companies announced a cooperation agreement at the same time, allowing HIMS to sell genuine Wegovy and Ozempic through its own platform, causing the stock price to rise by about 41% that day. However, the actual launch date of Wegovy and Ozempic sales was March 26th, with only five days left to the end of Q1. According to MarketBeat analysis, this means that the revenue contribution from the Novo Nordisk cooperation channel will almost not appear in Q1 financial results, and the substantial impact will only be reflected in Q2 at the earliest.

An analysis by Seeking Alpha points out that the company has explicitly reserved about $65 million for GLP-1 business revenue gap in its Q1 guidance, and this "pain" has been included in the official expectation, not a surprise.

The full-year guidance and subscriber numbers are the highlight

The company provided full-year revenue guidance of $2 billion to $2.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $300 million to $375 million, for 2026 in its Q4 2025 financial results on February 23rd. Whether the management maintains or raises this guidance in tonight's conference call will be the core signal for the market to judge whether the transformation is smooth.

In addition to financial data, the number of subscribers is also crucial. HIMS broke through 2.5 million subscribers at the end of 2025, growing by more than 16% from 2.2 million at the end of 2024, with about 82% of users staying for more than three months, and 90% of revenue coming from subscribers. If the number of users stagnates or declines this quarter, it will directly shake the market's confidence in the full-year guidance.

Analyst positions: mainly watchful, target price discrepancies are large

According to MarketBeat, 17 analysts currently cover HIMS, with an average target price of $31.86, which is about a 12% upside from the current stock price, but the rating structure is conservative: 4 buys, 12 holds, and 1 sell. Bank of America analyst Allen Lutz has adjusted his