Gold-Silver Ratio Breaks Above 76: Silver Under Dual Pressure from Rising Inventories and Capital Retreat
nashnova research
The gold-silver ratio topped 76 for the first time since last December, with silver underperforming gold under twin pressures of rising inventories and retreating investment demand — a divergence Metals Focus warns may widen further.
The gold-silver ratio broke 76 — what does that actually mean?
The gold-silver ratio — gold's price divided by silver's — cleared 76 for the first time since December, signaling silver is losing ground faster than gold.
This means → silver carries the same high-rate headwind as gold, plus two extra drags: weakening investment demand and rebuilding physical inventories.
The ratio still sits below its 2020–2025 average of roughly 82. Metals Focus sees room for it to climb further as headwinds persist.
Why has silver's supply squeeze evaporated?
London vault silver inventories rose to 932 million ounces by end-September, a near-four-year high. Available stocks — excluding physically backed ETF holdings — reached roughly 267 million ounces, nearly double the October 2025 trough.
Physically backed silver ETPs (exchange-traded products — funds that hold real metal) shed about 60 million ounces year-to-date. The outflow both removed financial buying pressure and released locked-up metal back into the market.
In plain terms = silver's 2025 rally was built on a "no metal available" scarcity premium. Now the metal is back, and the premium is gone.
High prices are also pushing industrial users to cut silver content per unit or switch to substitutes, especially in solar. Metals Focus expects the supply-demand deficit to narrow further this year, potentially flipping to surplus in 2027.
Gold itself is under pressure — can $4,000 hold?
On October 29, COMEX November silver futures fell 2.4% to $52.191, the lowest settlement since November 25, 2025. Gold futures slipped 0.5% to $4,017.70/oz. The next morning in Asia, spot gold dipped below $4,000 again.
The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28. U.S. third-quarter real GDP then printed at 3.4% annualized, up from 2.2% in Q2. Resilient growth + energy-driven inflation → markets keep pricing further tightening in December and beyond.
This means → gold is not living in the old "rates have peaked, wait for cuts" script. It faces a new reality where rates may still go higher, and $4,000 support looks thin.
What are the major houses saying?
Infinox senior analyst Tadeu dos Santos: "Markets continue to price in a December hike and further tightening beyond year-end, supporting yields and pressuring gold." He added that elevated oil prices are feeding inflation and may reinforce restrictive policy.
Yuxuan Tang, head of Asia rates and FX strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, expects the Fed to hike again in December and Q1 2027, with the 10-year Treasury yield potentially reaching 5.25%–5.5% by mid-2027 — making it hard to call a gold floor, with weak technical support below $4,000.
UBS's precious-metals sales desk noted that clients near year-end prefer to protect annual gains, keeping risk appetite low and capping rallies. UBS senior technical analyst Jason Perl has turned bullish, but his recovery path requires a break above $4,082.80, with support levels at $3,975.75, $3,923.24, and $3,870.74.
When could silver's underperformance reverse?
Metals Focus's core call: the acute liquidity squeeze that powered silver's record highs has largely unwound, and structural weakness may persist.
This reflects silver sitting in a "squeezed from both ends" position — sharing gold's macro-rate headwind while losing the scarcity premium on the supply side.
Put simply = for the gold-silver ratio to converge, two signals need to arrive together: confirmed peak in rates + a visible return of silver investment demand. Until both appear, silver's underperformance is likely to continue.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。