Goldman Sachs: $274 Billion Lock-Up Expiry Wave Hits Hong Kong Stocks, Historical Data Shows Share Price Pressure
Claire Weston
Goldman Sachs warns that roughly $274 billion in Hong Kong-listed shares will unlock over the next 12 months — a record — with historical data showing a median decline of about 4% at three months and 7% at six, putting rare supply pressure on the market's second half.
How big is the $274 billion unlock?
Over the next 12 months, approximately $274 billion worth of Hong Kong-listed shares will come out of lock-up — the largest such wave in the market's history.
The cohort includes recent high-profile IPOs such as MiniMax Group and Knowledge Atlas Technology.
In plain terms = a lock-up is the period after an IPO during which major shareholders cannot sell. It typically expires at six months, and because so many IPOs clustered in the same window, the unlocks now arrive all at once.
What does history say happens after lock-ups expire?
Goldman's data shows the median post-unlock decline is about 4% at three months and 7% at six.
This means → lock-up expiry is not a theoretical risk but a statistically documented drag, and it deepens over time.
SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes warns that stocks with large post-IPO gains and thin secondary-market liquidity face the sharpest technical selling pressure.
Why is Hong Kong especially vulnerable to this wave?
Hong Kong already carries a structural weakness: limited exposure to artificial intelligence relative to global peers, which has left it underperforming.
The unlock wave on top of that structural gap amounts to a surge of new supply into a market already short of buyers.
This reflects the core question for the second half: identifying names with real revenue growth and enough market cap to absorb selling pressure, rather than betting on a broad rebound.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.