Goldman Sachs Bullish on Zhongji Innolight's 1.6T Ramp-Up, Q3 Revenue Expected to Grow 25% QoQ
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Innolight (300308.SZ; 3308.HK) posted Q3 revenue of RMB 27.77bn, up 25% quarter-on-quarter as 1.6T shipments accelerated; Goldman and Citi both maintain Buy, but their 2028 net-profit forecasts diverge by as much as 31% — the crux is when next-gen products hit volume.
Why did Q3 accelerate so sharply from Q2?
Revenue hit RMB 27.77bn, up 25% QoQ — well above Q2's 14% pace; gross margin edged up to 46.6%.
Goldman attributes the jump to three factors: strong end-demand, the market leader's easier access to scarce materials, and solid execution on deliveries.
Shipments delayed by raw-material shortages and Thailand flooding were cleared in October. This means → that revenue falls into Q4, and Goldman forecasts Q4 revenue at RMB 35.37bn, another 27% QoQ increase.
Why did net profit miss expectations?
Citi noted that Q3 operating profit was roughly in line, but net profit was dragged down by two one-off, non-operating losses.
First: a pre-tax RMB 620m fair-value loss on equity stakes in upstream suppliers whose market value declined. Second: a pre-tax RMB 390m FX loss after the renminbi strengthened following the company's H-share fundraise.
In plain terms = neither loss reflects a problem with the core business. Stripping both out, core net profit was about RMB 9.4bn, implying a core net margin of roughly 34%.
What does the 1.6T ramp and the laser-source switch mean?
Q3 growth was driven by expanding 800G and 1.6T shipments; management expects 1.6T shipment growth to outpace 800G in 2027.
Goldman highlights a key shift: CW modules — continuous-wave laser, a lower-cost light source — are replacing EML modules (electro-absorption modulated laser). CW modules carry a lower ASP but a higher gross margin.
This means → the same unit volume will generate less revenue but more profit per revenue dollar. That is exactly why Goldman cut its revenue forecast while raising its gross-margin forecast: 2027 margin from 48.1% to 48.7%, 2028 from 49.8% to 50.2%.
How secure are next year's orders?
Citi recorded that cloud customers' full-year 2027 demand is covered by firm, binding purchase orders, with no cancellations or guidance cuts so far.
Some key customers have already provided 2028 demand guidance showing further growth; more are expected to do so by late 2026 to early Q1 2027.
This means → the main variable for next year has shifted from "is there demand?" to "can the company deliver?" Citi's recorded countermeasures include pre-stocking, long-term supply agreements, prepayments, and qualifying new vendors. DSP chips — digital signal processors, the core control chip inside an optical module — remain industry-tight, but the company has secured its full allocation at locked-in prices.
Why do Goldman's and Citi's forecasts diverge more the further out you look?
For 2026, their revenue calls nearly overlap: Goldman RMB 104.9bn, Citi RMB 104.2bn.
From 2027 the gap widens: revenue diverges by about 5%; by 2028, about 20%. Net profit by 2028: Citi at RMB 169.9bn vs Goldman at RMB 129.6bn — a 31% gap.
The core disagreement is when next-gen products hit volume. Citi places the ramp of 2.4T and NPO — near-package optics, an architecture that moves the optical module closer to the chip — in 2027–2028. Goldman cuts across the board, lowering 2028 revenue by 7%.
How far are the Street's consensus numbers from what the banks see?
Goldman's A-share target falls from RMB 2,645 to RMB 2,405, implying a 2027E P/E of 34.5x; Citi's drops from RMB 1,325 to RMB 1,212, implying 15.8x 2027E EPS.
Both sit well above consensus: Goldman's 2027 revenue is 23% above the Street, Citi's 30.5% above.
This reflects the market's biggest point of disagreement right now — whether the growth rate can be sustained beyond 2027. In plain terms = the banks are very bullish, but the broader market is still asking "can this pace really last?"
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