Goldman Sachs Cuts 2026 Global Smartphone Shipments to 1.14 Billion Units as Memory Price Hikes Weigh on Demand
N.R. Finch
Goldman Sachs on June 20 cut its 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast by 4% to 1.14 billion units, widening the year-on-year decline to 10% — rising memory costs are squeezing end demand, yet market value keeps growing as buyers trade up.
How deep is the cut, and why now?
Goldman lowered its 2026 shipment forecast from roughly 1.19 billion to 1.14 billion units, widening the projected YoY drop from -6% to -10%.
This is the second downgrade since January, driven by persistently rising memory costs on top of a saturating global market.
This means → handset makers aren't facing a temporary dip — the volume ceiling is coming down, and the demand lost to higher prices won't snap back quickly.
Volumes are shrinking — so why is the market worth more?
Goldman projects global smartphone market value at $595.7 bn, $606.3 bn, and $621.4 bn for 2026–2028, growing 3%, 2%, and 2% YoY respectively.
In plain terms = fewer phones sold, but each phone costs more — memory inflation lifts the average selling price, and consumers are trading up faster.
Premium handsets above $600 expand at a 5% CAGR, reaching 34% of total shipments by 2028. By revenue the shift is starker — premium's share rises from 66% to 76%.
Premium eats, mid-range bleeds — is the market splitting in two?
Mid-range shipments ($200–600) contract at a -2% CAGR, falling to 285 million units by 2028. Revenue share compresses from 22% to just 14%.
This reflects a lack of breakthrough upgrades and increasingly cautious middle-class spending — the mid-tier is being squeezed from both ends.
Entry-level (sub-$200) stays relatively stable, growing at a 1% CAGR to roughly 494 million units, holding about 42% of volume. But Goldman warns: price-sensitive buyers are hit hardest by memory inflation, and downside risk in this segment should not be underestimated.
Which brands and regions can hold up?
Apple and Samsung see milder declines of -2% and -3% respectively, with market share potentially rising to 22% and 21%.
This means → in a shrinking market, top brands with premium lineups and pricing power actually gain share.
Regional divergence is sharper: BRICS markets drop 11% YoY, bearing the most pressure. Developed markets fall 4% overall, with the U.S. and Western Europe down 5% and 4%.
Foldables — shipments cut, yet penetration revised up?
Goldman cuts 2026/27 foldable shipment forecasts by 10% and 7% to 41.1 million and 69.1 million units, but raises penetration rates to 3.6% and 5.9% (from 3.4% and 4.1%), with 2028 projected at 6.8%.
In plain terms = the overall pie shrank, but foldables shrank less than the market — so their relative share actually grew.
The key variable is Apple: foldable iPhone shipments are projected at 14.1 million in 2026, jumping to 34.4 million in 2027 — the single biggest driver of foldable penetration acceleration.
When could this forecast be proven wrong?
Goldman's own checkpoint: whether memory supply-demand rebalances in 2027.
If memory prices retreat in 2027 as new supply comes online, the demand squeeze eases and shipments could beat current projections.
This means → the biggest swing factor isn't the phone makers themselves — it's the upstream memory supply-demand game. Watching Samsung and SK Hynix's capacity expansion schedules matters more than watching phone launch events.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.