Goldman Sachs: Global Central Banks Bought 79 Tons of Gold in August; Storage Location Emerges as New Focus
nashnova research
Goldman estimates central banks bought 79 tonnes of gold in August, annualizing to roughly 1,000 tonnes — five times the pre-2022 pace. The bigger shift: countries are moving bullion out of New York and into London, redrawing the trust map of global reserves.
How big is 79 tonnes?
Central banks bought an estimated 79 tonnes in August, up sharply from July's 44 tonnes. The three-month average is 85 tonnes per month, annualizing to roughly 1,000 tonnes.
This means → buying is running at nearly five times the ~200-tonne annual pace before Russia's reserves were frozen in 2022 — no longer a spike, but a structural shift sustained for almost three years.
In plain terms = central banks are swapping foreign-exchange reserves into gold at a historically rare speed, and the pace keeps rising.
How much did China buy — and why does the official number only show half?
Goldman, using London OTC market data, estimates China bought roughly 25 tonnes in August — the largest identifiable buyer.
The People's Bank of China officially reported only about half that figure, consistent with the pattern seen in prior months.
This means → a significant share of purchases flows through unofficial channels; official data systematically understates actual demand. Tracking China's gold appetite requires looking beyond the central-bank monthly report.
Is the buying pace slowing? What does Goldman think?
The monthly average edged down from ~100 tonnes in June and 91 tonnes in July to 85 tonnes over the past three months — a modest deceleration on the surface.
Goldman views the pullback as limited and not enough to alter the structural thesis.
The bank has raised its 2026–2027 assumed monthly central-bank buying to 60 tonnes and expects official purchases to drive the bulk of its gold-price forecast: $5,400/oz by end-2027, roughly 23% above current levels.
The great gold migration: where is the bullion going?
In August, foreign central-bank gold held at the New York Fed fell by 40 tonnes; gold in custody at the Bank of England rose by 46 tonnes. In July, Bank of England custody had already jumped 63 tonnes.
The Dutch central bank disclosed in early September that it moved nearly 90 tonnes from New York and Ottawa to London, citing "crisis preparedness."
Goldman estimates that since early 2025, New York Fed custody has shrunk by ~200 tonnes while Bank of England custody has grown by ~500 tonnes.
What does the relocation tell us?
The debate among advanced-economy central banks has shifted from "whether to hold gold" to "where to store it."
This reflects a deeper anxiety about reserve security and cross-border custodial trust — it is not gold itself they doubt, but whose vault it sits in.
In plain terms = gold's "address" is becoming as important a variable as the amount held. The New York Fed's status as the world's gold vault is facing its biggest trust test since World War II.
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