Goldman Sachs: Global Refinery Shutdowns Exceed Worst-Case Expectations, Refined Product Tightness May Persist Through 2027
nashnova research
Global refinery outages have hit 5.8 million b/d, blowing past Goldman's own worst-case threshold; product inventories are critically low, and the bank warns the squeeze could last through 2027.
How bad are the outages?
Middle East excess outages run about 1.6 million b/d; Russia adds roughly 4.2 million b/d — a combined 5.8 million b/d.
This means → Goldman analyst Nikhil Bhandari's September worst-case of 5 million b/d has already been breached by actual data.
In plain terms = the bank's own "worst script" is now behind the curve.
How much inventory buffer is left?
Singapore middle-distillate stocks are down 44% year-on-year; jet-fuel stocks at the ARA hub — Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp, Europe's largest oil-product trading cluster — are down 56%.
Chinese gasoline and diesel stocks are down 8% and 11% respectively; U.S. stocks for both sit below their historical range.
This means → major hubs have almost no cushion to absorb an additional supply shock — any unplanned outage could feed straight into end-user prices.
Where did the deferred maintenance go?
Global planned turnaround volumes this autumn fell 1.7 million b/d year-on-year (a 27% drop), driven mainly by U.S. refiners pushing maintenance back.
Goldman warns: deferred is not cancelled — it is a bill coming due later. The 2027 turnaround peak is projected at roughly 7.7 million b/d (around May), well above this year's 6.0 million b/d peak.
Asia ex-China planned outages in Q2 2027 will exceed 140% of normal seasonal levels, with India and South Korea bearing the brunt. This reflects both countries' outsized role in global diesel and jet-fuel exports — supply available for export will tighten sharply.
How are soaring freight rates making it worse?
The global average crude-tanker rate hit a record $24/barrel in October, up from roughly $3 a year ago.
A double hit: refiners dependent on long-haul crude imports see margins squeezed, while some product tankers are being pulled into crude service — directly cutting product-shipping capacity.
Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to 92% of their 2025 average, but product gaps remain stark — jet fuel is at just 54%, diesel at 34%, gasoline at 10%. In plain terms = crude can be moved via ship-to-ship transfers; refined products, with higher flammability and tighter specs, cannot easily use the same workaround.
What are crack spreads telling us?
The heating-oil (diesel) crack spread — the gap between product price and crude price, a proxy for refinery profit — has reached $98.45/barrel, roughly 3.5× the gasoline crack.
The Brent December-to-December calendar spread hit $29.98/barrel, the strongest backwardation on a rolling basis on record.
This means → the market is paying an extreme premium for near-term product barrels; the steepness of the forward curve signals traders see this shortage lasting well beyond a few weeks.
What is Goldman's trade recommendation?
The bank reiterates its long on June 2027 European gasoline call, framing it as a hedge against further geopolitical escalation — gasoline is currently the "cheap leg" among products, offering low-cost exposure to the supply-tightness theme.
Goldman simultaneously maintains a bearish crude stance: Brent expected to fall to $90/barrel in December and average $80/barrel in 2027.
In plain terms = Goldman's logic is that the war premium in crude can be diluted by diplomacy, but damaged refineries cannot be repaired by negotiation. The key checkpoints: whether Asia's concentrated Q2 2027 turnarounds proceed on schedule, and how fast damaged Middle Eastern and Russian refinery capacity is restored.
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