Goldman Sachs: Global Refining Activity Falls to Lowest Since Pandemic, Diesel Shortage Risk Greatest
Miles Bennett
Goldman Sachs warns that July global refinery utilization has fallen to its lowest level for the period since the 2020 pandemic, with diesel facing the most acute shortage risk among all refined products — a signal that industrial fuel supply chains are at their tightest in nearly five years.
How far have refinery runs fallen?
Global refinery utilization in July dropped to its lowest level for the period since the 2020 COVID pandemic.
This means → the world's capacity to turn crude oil into usable fuel is running at its slowest pace in five years.
In plain terms = crude supply isn't the problem — the plants that refine crude into finished fuel aren't running hard enough to keep up.
Why is diesel the most vulnerable product?
Goldman explicitly flags diesel as facing the greatest shortage risk among all refined products.
This means → diesel powers trucking, heavy machinery, and shipping; a supply squeeze here hits logistics and manufacturing costs first.
This reflects an uneven pressure map across the energy market — gasoline and jet fuel are coping, but diesel sits at the weakest point.
What does this mean for markets?
Low refinery runs combined with diesel shortage expectations could push the diesel crack spread — the price gap between diesel and crude, a key measure of refining profit — wider.
In plain terms = if refiners don't ramp up utilization soon, diesel will get more expensive relative to crude, and industries that depend on it will face rising cost pressure.
Goldman views this as the single biggest supply-side risk in the current energy market.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.