Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong IPO Fundraising on Track to Hit $60 Billion for the Full Year
N.R. Finch
Goldman Sachs Asia ECM head Wang Yajun says Hong Kong IPO fundraising could reach $60 billion (about HK$468 billion) for a record year, driven by AI-themed listings and dual A+H share offerings.
Where does the $60 billion confidence come from?
Wang Yajun expects second-half fundraising to match or exceed the first half, pushing the full-year total to $60 billion.
The core pillar is dual A+H listings: large semiconductor and hardware giants nurtured on the A-share market are now listing in Hong Kong, with massive individual deal sizes lifting the overall total.
First-time Hong Kong IPOs from startups are smaller but offer outsized growth potential — a second growth leg.
Why does Goldman say Hong Kong has entered the "AI era"?
Wang says Hong Kong's market has fully entered an AI-dominated phase — "the most active, best-performing, and biggest-fundraising stocks are all AI-related."
This means → the current IPO boom is not a cyclical upturn but a structural bull market driven by industrial transformation.
China and the U.S. have the most complete AI supply chains — spanning large language models, compute, and chips — and more Chinese AI companies are set to list in Hong Kong.
How is the large-model sector being priced?
Wang notes the large-model space has a clear winner-take-all dynamic; the market currently prices these stocks primarily on revenue growth.
In plain terms = until a winner emerges, investors are backing every leading model company, waiting for the field to consolidate.
This reflects the pricing logic for AI IPOs today: the market is buying the probability of survival, not current profit.
Does the AI bubble debate matter?
Wang argues the key to judging the sector's outlook is underlying demand, not the bubble label.
AI adoption by individuals and enterprises keeps expanding; capex demand across compute, chips, and storage remains on a long-term uptrend.
In plain terms = as long as real demand is still growing, debating whether a bubble exists is "practically meaningless."
Will lock-up expiries and capital diversion cause a sell-off?
Hong Kong faces multiple lock-up expiry dates — when early shareholders can sell — in the second half. Wang says the volumes are small relative to total market cap and will not derail the structural uptrend.
Mega-fundraisings by global tech giants may create short-term crowding-out effects, but the market can absorb them quickly.
Cornerstone investors — large institutions that commit to IPO allocations with lock-up periods — show no sign of cooling on AI-track IPOs.
The Hang Seng fell — so why doesn't it reflect the real market?
The Hang Seng Index dropped 10.7% in the first half; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 18.9% — seemingly at odds with the IPO boom.
Wang explains: both indices update their constituents slowly and have not yet included the new AI-era listings — they "do not currently represent the face of Hong Kong's market."
This means → recent HKEX reforms — lowering the weighted-voting-rights threshold, broadening secondary-listing eligibility — aim to bring the index in line with market reality and attract global long-term capital.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.