Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong Market Has Entered the AI Era, IPO Fundraising Expected to Hit Record Highs
N.R. Finch
Goldman Sachs Asia ECM head Wang Yajun says Hong Kong has entered the AI era, but the Hang Seng Index hasn't caught up; IPO fundraising this year could surpass the 2021 all-time high, signaling a structural overhaul the index can't yet see.
What does "a tale of fire and ice" mean here?
This year's most actively traded, best-performing, and largest fundraising stocks in Hong Kong are all AI-related — yet the Hang Seng Index is down 5.53% year-to-date, and the Hang Seng Tech is down 15.22%.
This means → index constituents are still the old guard; the AI stocks attracting new money haven't been included, so the index and the actual market are badly mismatched.
In plain terms = the index says Hong Kong is falling, but the AI corner where real money is flowing is actually rising — two different worlds.
How strong is this year's fundraising, exactly?
As of July 7, Chinese issuers have raised $67 billion in Hong Kong equity capital markets; full-year 2025 was $90.6 billion. IPO proceeds alone hit $30.3 billion versus $36.6 billion for all of 2025.
Wang expects both full-year equity fundraising and IPO proceeds to surpass 2025, with IPO fundraising potentially exceeding the 2021 record.
This means → half the year has already delivered over 70% of last year's total. At this pace, Hong Kong's IPO market is returning to its peak of four years ago.
Who is buying? How has the investor base changed?
This year's Hong Kong IPO participants include more global long-only funds, of higher quality, and cornerstone investors span a wider range of regions.
In some hot deals, institutions that skip the cornerstone round — early commitments that lock in allocations before pricing — can't get a meaningful share at all.
This reflects a shift in global appetite for Hong Kong AI listings: from "watching" to "fighting for allocations."
Is AI capex a bubble?
Wang's view: AI usage keeps rising, so capex on the compute, chips, storage, and materials that power it will keep rising too — end-user demand determines the spending trajectory.
The large-model space is fiercely competitive and will likely end in a winner-take-all outcome — but until a winner emerges, investors prefer to bet on several leading companies at once rather than concentrating on one.
In plain terms = the question isn't bubble-or-not; it's "nobody knows who wins yet" — so capital casts a wide net first, then pulls it tight.
What's worth watching in the second half?
China has a complete AI supply chain; more AI companies will list in Hong Kong or on the STAR Market in the second half.
The Hong Kong SFC required from early 2026 that a single signing sponsor may have no more than 6 active projects at a time, aiming to raise IPO and overall market quality.
This means → regulators are braking on quantity and accelerating on quality. Whether index compilers speed up the inclusion of AI names will be the key marker of Hong Kong's structural transformation.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.