Goldman Sachs: Middle East War Sends Crude Shipping Costs Soaring Sevenfold, Exceeding $20 Per Barrel
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs says the Middle East war has driven global crude-oil shipping costs from $3 to over $20 per barrel in one year — a roughly sevenfold jump that is reshaping trade routes and squeezing refiners' real cost of oil.
From $3 to $20 a barrel — where does the money go?
Goldman breaks down the roughly $17/barrel increase: the Strait of Hormuz war-risk premium accounts for about $7, while higher fuel costs and ship-to-ship transfer operations each add about $4.
In plain terms = tankers crossing that stretch of water now pay a hefty "war insurance" surcharge — that alone is about 40% of the total increase.
The rest splits between pricier bunker fuel and an extra logistics step — ship-to-ship transfer (one tanker offloads crude to another at sea, bypassing ports).
Why are tankers "handing off" cargo at sea?
After the US–Iran war broke out, vessel attacks hit the Strait of Hormuz (the only chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to open ocean), and transit volumes plunged.
This means → tankers avoid sailing straight through the strait to distant refineries. Instead, they transfer cargo inside the Gulf, and larger vessels carry it out via longer routes.
About one-sixth of tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman now perform these transfers daily — a stretched logistics chain that drives costs up.
How will refiners respond?
Goldman warns that sustained high freight could compress refiners' overall crude demand — the delivered price of oil is now far above the headline quote.
This means → refiners will favor closer suppliers, cutting long-haul purchases from the Persian Gulf.
In plain terms = refiners used to shop globally for the cheapest barrel. Now shipping costs are so high that distance itself has become a pricing factor.
What does this mean for oil prices?
Goldman's base case puts Brent at $90/barrel by year-end, but the bank flags several upside risks.
Analysts cite prolonged high freight, intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and stickier geopolitical risk premiums as factors that could push prices higher.
This reflects a structural shift: freight is no longer a footnote on the bill — it is becoming a major variable that shapes where oil prices go.
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