Goldman Sachs Predicts Over 50% Upside for CATL in the Next Year
N.R. Finch
Goldman Sachs set a 12-month target of HK$946 for CATL's Hong Kong shares and RMB 566 for its Shenzhen A-shares — implying roughly 51% and 57% upside — arguing the market has yet to price in the consolidation value of CATL's energy-storage business.
What price did Goldman set, and how big is the gap?
The Hong Kong 12-month target is HK$946, implying about 51% upside from the current price.
The Shenzhen A-share target is RMB 566, implying about 57% upside.
This means → Goldman believes the market is valuing CATL at roughly a 40% discount to fair value, with the disagreement centered on what the energy-storage business is really worth.
Why does Goldman think the market is underpricing CATL?
Analysts Nick Zheng and Selina Yan argue that the market prices CATL's energy-storage systems (ESS) business mostly on battery shipment volume.
In plain terms = the market counts "how many batteries CATL sold" but hasn't valued the extra margin CATL can capture by delivering integrated storage systems.
Goldman says CATL's cost advantages, technology lead, and ecosystem — built over years against Chinese peers — form a deep moat now extending from EV batteries into energy storage.
What is the consolidation logic for energy storage?
China's energy-storage battery market is currently fragmented — many players, no settled hierarchy.
Goldman expects front-loaded demand to concentrate the storage cycle around 2028, exposing weaker suppliers as performance gaps widen.
This means → the industry is shifting from "everyone can sell" to "only leaders thrive," and CATL, as the largest player by global share, stands to gain the most from consolidation.
How strong is CATL's storage position right now?
According to SNE Research, CATL's energy-storage battery shipments last year accounted for roughly 30% of the global market; it is also the world's largest EV battery maker.
This reflects a first-mover scale position CATL has already secured in the storage segment.
Goldman's key test: whether the storage business delivers on consolidation gains — higher margins, better earnings quality, and greater market share — will determine if this target price holds up.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.