Goldman Sachs: Qatar Bazan Gas Plant Explosion May Delay LNG Production Ramp-Up by One to Two Months
Alina Collins
An explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex killed 13 people; Goldman Sachs warns the LNG production ramp-up could slip by one to two months, with a two-month delay potentially pushing European gas prices toward €50/MWh.
Where did the explosion happen, and why is the timing sensitive?
A powerful explosion struck Qatar's Ras Laffan energy complex late Sunday, killing at least 13 and injuring 66.
The blast came roughly one week after the US-Iran interim ceasefire and days after the Strait of Hormuz reopened. This means → the market had just exhaled on supply risk, and a new variable landed.
Goldman analyst Samantha Dart noted the explosion hit the Barzam gas supply facility, which serves Qatar's domestic gas users and has not directly impaired LNG export capacity.
If the export facilities are intact, what is the market worried about?
Dart warned the real concern is not physical damage to export infrastructure but whether QatarEnergy might voluntarily slow the restart of LNG export trains as a precaution.
In plain terms = the equipment is fine, but after a fatal incident the operator may hit the brakes for safety reviews, dragging the ramp-up timeline.
Qatar's LNG export target is an 83% capacity utilization rate; any slowdown directly affects the global supply-recovery schedule.
What happens if the ramp-up slips by one month?
Goldman's model: a one-month delay to end-July 2026 would cut northwest Europe's end-October 2026 storage from the baseline 74% to roughly 70%.
Dart called the incremental price support under this scenario "very limited, possibly nonexistent."
This means → even with end-March 2027 storage falling from 32% to 28%, Europe could still weather a winter one to two standard deviations colder than average — the safety cushion holds.
What about two months — where does the risk jump?
If the delay extends to two months — full ramp-up pushed to end-September 2026 — Goldman's tone turns notably cautious.
End-March 2027 storage would be 8 percentage points below baseline, creating a stock-out risk in an extreme cold winter (two standard deviations below average).
In plain terms = a one-month slip is manageable; two months could mean running out of gas in the coldest winter scenario.
Where could gas prices land?
Under the two-month delay scenario, Goldman expects Q4 2026 TTF prices to approach €50/MWh, above the current €40/MWh forecast baseline.
In a more extreme case, prices may need to reach €65/MWh (about $22/MMBtu) to curb Asian LNG demand and redirect supply to Europe.
This reflects a key dynamic: European storage levels are highly sensitive to Qatar's export restart pace — the ramp-up timeline over the next few weeks is the market's core variable.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.