Goldman Sachs Raises 2030 Global Data Center Capacity Forecast to 273GW
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs raised its 2030 global data center capacity forecast from 217GW to 273GW, implying roughly $8.5 trillion in capital spending over the next five years — a build-out that is redefining the ceiling for infrastructure investment.
How big is 273GW?
Goldman now expects global data center supply to reach 273GW by 2030 — roughly 26% above its July 2026 forecast.
This means → 170GW of net new capacity after 2025, with annual additions of 25GW, 32GW, and 35GW in 2026–2028 — accelerating, not slowing.
In plain terms = at an industry rule-of-thumb of $50 billion per GW, 170GW translates to about $8.5 trillion in capex — enough to rebuild several of the world's largest industries from scratch.
How much does the U.S. alone account for?
Goldman projects U.S. data center capacity at 152GW by 2030 (up from a prior 125GW estimate), with 103GW added after 2025 — roughly $5.2 trillion in capex.
This means → the U.S. captures about 60% of global net additions, making it the undisputed center of this build-out.
Goldman believes current consensus for U.S. hyperscaler capex (averaging roughly $1.51 trillion per year) is sufficient to fund this, but the figure excludes spending by private AI labs and data center platforms.
What is driving the expansion?
High-performance computing (HPC) — data centers purpose-built for AI training and large-scale computation — is the biggest driver. By 2028, projects of 75MW or larger will account for 75% of U.S. net additions.
Emerging cloud providers — a new wave of cloud companies beyond Amazon, Microsoft, and Google — are also scaling fast, adding a cumulative 11.8GW from 2026 to 2030.
This reflects a broadening of GPU demand beyond the largest players. Data center construction is no longer a big-three game.
Where does the money come from — and what can go wrong?
HPC data center builds are typically highly leveraged, with debt funding 80–90% of total costs.
This means → project returns are extremely sensitive to financing costs. A small shift in the rate environment can swing profitability forecasts significantly.
Goldman notes that high-quality projects can secure contract cash flows from investment-grade tenants on 15- to 30-year leases, and capital-recycling mechanisms offer developers a path to fund new builds at lower cost — but this route works only for projects with high certainty.
Could regulation hit the brakes?
The governors of Texas and Pennsylvania have issued directives that effectively paused fast-track permitting in their states, drawing growing investor scrutiny.
Goldman believes the primary impact falls on speculative builds, but warns of ongoing headline risk and potential delays to project timelines.
Put simply = certainty of power supply and permitting approval has become the core filter determining which projects actually get built — whether execution risk can be managed is the key variable in whether the 273GW forecast materializes.
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