Goldman Sachs Raises 2030 Weight-Loss Drug Market Forecast to $114 Billion
Taylor Wilson
Goldman Sachs lifted its 2030 global weight-loss drug market forecast from $101 billion to $114 billion, driven by oral GLP-1 uptake, faster-than-expected ex-US growth, and Medicare coverage expansion — a signal the market ceiling is still rising.
Why raise the forecast again after just a few months?
The revision comes only months after Goldman's December 2025 estimate, an increase of roughly 13%.
Three forces exceeded expectations at once: oral GLP-1 drugs (weight-loss pills you swallow instead of inject) gained share faster, ex-US markets outperformed, and Medicare (U.S. federal health insurance for seniors) is set to cover obesity treatment.
This means → demand, distribution, and policy are all pushing in the same direction simultaneously, which is why Goldman moved the number up so sharply.
How much share have oral drugs captured?
After Novo Nordisk launched the Wegovy oral tablet, oral new-brand prescriptions already account for 40%–50% of the mix.
Goldman now expects oral drugs to represent 40% of 2030 global revenue — roughly $46 billion — up from a prior estimate of 35% ($35 billion).
In plain terms = weight-loss treatment used to mean injections; now a pill will do. Patient acceptance is naturally higher, and that alone widens the market.
Within oral drugs, who is winning and who is losing?
Wegovy oral's projected share jumped from 16% to 38% — the biggest single upgrade.
Eli Lilly's Foundayo edged down from 54% to 48%, still the largest single oral brand.
The "other" category shrank from 30% to just 14% — This means → the two leaders are rapidly squeezing out smaller players, and oral-drug concentration is surging.
Why did ex-US markets become the largest source of the upgrade?
Goldman raised 2030 ex-US obesity sales from $39 billion to $48 billion — a $9 billion increase and the single biggest contributor to the overall revision.
The direct driver: Eli Lilly's Mounjaro outperformed expectations outside the United States.
This reflects a broader point — demand for weight-loss drugs is not a U.S.-only phenomenon. The global obese population is enormous; once drug access improves, ex-US markets show even more elasticity than the U.S.
How many new patients could Medicare coverage unlock?
Goldman expects obesity coverage to launch July 1 through a GLP-1 most-favored-nation (MFN) agreement.
The long-term addressable pool is roughly 17 million patients; 2026 Medicare obesity sales are forecast at $2.6 billion, mostly injectables.
In plain terms = U.S. federal insurance previously did not reimburse weight-loss drugs, so patients paid out of pocket. Once coverage kicks in, the payment barrier for 17 million people vanishes overnight — an entirely new demand pool.
The endgame: who takes 80% of the market?
Goldman raised Wegovy's global peak sales forecast from $8 billion to $17.4 billion — more than doubling it.
Foundayo's 2030 sales estimate rose from $19 billion to $22 billion.
Analysts expect Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to control 82% of the global GLP-1 market by decade's end — This means → weight-loss drugs are already a duopoly, and the window for second-tier players is closing fast.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.