Goldman Sachs Raises Copper Target Price to $13,735 as US Stockpiling Deepens Global Supply Gap
Claire Weston
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 LME copper target to $13,735/ton, arguing that massive U.S. copper imports are draining supply from the rest of the world — compounded by delayed restarts at two major mines — leaving a gap far wider than previously estimated.
How much wider is the supply gap now?
Goldman estimates the 2026 "ex-U.S." copper deficit will hit 640,000 tons, with 2027 at 170,000 tons — up from prior estimates of just 60,000 and 40,000 tons, roughly a tenfold revision.
This means → the copper isn't disappearing; U.S. importers are front-loading shipments ahead of possible tariffs, and once that metal enters U.S. warehouses, it's locked away from international markets.
Goldman also raised its 2026 U.S. copper inventory build forecast from 550,000 tons to 900,000 tons. In plain terms = the LME price now reflects a world where the freely tradeable copper pool has been sharply compressed.
Why can't the mines fill the gap?
The bottleneck sits at two world-class copper mines: Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC. Both suffered production incidents in 2025 and have yet to return to full capacity — the latest estimate is 2028.
Goldman cut its 2026 global mine-supply forecast by 350,000 tons, roughly 1.5% of total world mine output.
Scrap copper offers little cushion either: China's domestic scrap output fell 12% year-on-year in the first months of this year.
Is the current price too high or fair?
Goldman's pricing model shows that for every one day of inventory the market tightens (about 75,000 tons), copper rises roughly 1.4%.
On that basis, 2026 fair value works out to about $12,600 and 2027 to about $13,800. The current price of roughly $13,600/ton sits above the 2026 fair value.
This reflects a speculative premium — put simply = part of today's price is a bet that tariffs will arrive.
What happens under Goldman's three scenarios?
Scenario 1: A prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption — supply and demand shocks roughly offset, but if speculative money exits, copper could fall toward the $12,600 support level.
Scenario 2: A June announcement of copper tariffs starting January 2027 — LME copper could break above $14,000, but after implementation, 2027 prices would settle back to around $13,900.
Scenario 3: The U.S. explicitly rules out copper tariffs — the ex-U.S. market flips to a small 130,000-ton surplus in 2027, pushing prices to about $12,800. Goldman notes, however, that the tariff option never fully disappears.
How is the demand mix shifting?
China's apparent copper demand still grew 1% year-on-year in Q1, driven by a 10% jump in grid and power-infrastructure demand — partly offsetting weaker solar and EV-related consumption.
This means → the copper buyer profile is changing. By 2030, grid and power infrastructure will account for over 60% of incremental copper demand growth.
In plain terms = these buyers are driven by energy security, AI data-center buildouts, and defense — far less sensitive to the economic cycle than traditional copper end-markets like construction or appliances.
What's the next catalyst to watch?
The nearest hard deadline: the U.S. Commerce Department must submit its latest recommendation on refined-copper import tariffs to the President by June 30.
LME copper currently sits at roughly $13,600/ton, up about 10% year-to-date, below the all-time high of $14,153 hit in mid-May but still elevated.
This signals a market caught between two uncertainties — policy and mine recovery — where prices have neither corrected on the premium nor pushed to new highs.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.