Goldman Sachs Raises End-2026 Copper Price Forecast to $14,700/Ton
nashnova research
Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end 2026 copper target from $13,735/ton to $14,700/ton, citing weaker-than-expected mine supply and intensifying US-China competition for copper resources that widens the global deficit.
What exactly did Goldman change?
The year-end 2026 copper price target rises from $13,735/ton to $14,700/ton — roughly a 7% increase.
This is not a short-term trading call; it reprices the supply-demand picture over the next 18 months.
This means → Goldman believes copper's rally has further to run because the supply problem is worse than the market assumed.
How big is the supply gap?
Goldman now sees a 950,000-ton deficit outside the US in 2026, up from a prior estimate of 640,000 tons — a gap nearly 50% wider.
The 2027 deficit is projected at 220,000 tons, also above the prior 170,000 tons.
In plain terms = mines are producing even less copper than previously thought, and demand has not dropped at all.
Why can't mines keep up?
Goldman states explicitly that "mine supply is lower than previously expected" — actual output keeps falling short.
New copper mines typically take years to over a decade from exploration to first production; the shortfall cannot be patched quickly.
This reflects a supply bottleneck that is structural, not cyclical — the industry simply lacks enough producing capacity.
How does US-China rivalry affect the copper price?
Goldman flags competition between the US and China for copper resources as a second key driver widening the deficit.
In plain terms = the two largest buyers are bidding against each other, leaving less copper for the rest of the world and pushing prices higher.
This means → copper's trajectory depends not just on how much mines can dig, but on how great-power competition reshapes trade flows.
What would make or break this forecast?
Goldman itself acknowledges the key variable: whether mines can actually recover output fast enough by year-end 2026.
If mine supply rebounds faster than expected, the deficit narrows and the upside case weakens.
Put simply = the forecast stands or falls on one question — can global mines get production back on track?
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