Goldman Sachs Raises LME Copper Forecast, Tariff Implementation Could Push Prices Above $14,000
Claire Weston
Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 2026 LME copper forecast from $11,200 to $13,700/ton, a 22% jump; the thesis is that U.S. stockpiling is draining global supply while two major mines stay offline until 2028, and this month's tariff decision will determine whether copper breaks $14,000.
What exactly did Goldman change?
Q4 2026 average LME copper forecast raised from $11,200 to $13,700/ton — up 22%. Full-year 2027 average raised from $10,750 to $13,800 — up 28%.
LME spot copper currently trades at roughly $13,714/ton, already near Goldman's new target.
This means → Goldman sees copper not as a short-term spike but as a structural re-pricing — the average over the next 18 months has been lifted by more than a fifth.
Why is the supply gap widening so fast?
Goldman now estimates the 2026 non-U.S. copper deficit at roughly 640,000 tons, with 2027 at about 170,000 tons — both sharply wider than prior forecasts.
Supply side: global mine output in 2026–2027 is cut by a combined 350,000 tons, about 1.5% of total mine supply.
Demand side: U.S. importers are stockpiling copper ahead of potential tariffs. U.S. inventories are projected to climb from roughly 100,000 tons in early 2025 to about 1.8 million tons by end of 2026 — a net addition of roughly 900,000 tons, up from the previous estimate of 550,000.
In plain terms = the U.S. is acting like a pump, pulling copper out of global circulation and locking it inside domestic warehouses. Once it enters a U.S. warehouse, it no longer flows to the LME — so the pool of copper available to the rest of the world keeps shrinking, and prices rise.
What happened to the two key mines?
Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC — two of the world's most important copper mines — both suffered production accidents in 2025.
Goldman now expects full recovery to be delayed until 2028, directly shaving roughly 350,000 tons off 2026 global mine supply forecasts.
This means → the supply fix is at least a year later than the market expected, and the gap in 2026–2027 has almost no new capacity to fill it.
What are the three tariff scenarios?
Scenario 1 — Tariffs from Jan 2027: importers front-load purchases in H2 2026, tightening non-U.S. supply further. LME copper could break $14,000/ton. Once tariffs take effect, imports drop sharply and prices pull back.
Scenario 2 — No tariffs: import demand falls significantly; the non-U.S. market could tip into slight surplus by 2027. Copper slides to roughly $12,800/ton — what Goldman considers fair value on fundamentals without tariffs. Goldman adds that a "no tariff" call today does not permanently eliminate the option.
Scenario 3 — No decision: copper holds near current levels, supported by the tight non-U.S. balance and speculative positioning.
What does this mean for investors?
This month's tariff ruling is the single most important near-term variable — it determines whether LME copper truly clears the $14,000 mark.
Scrap copper — recycled metal that could theoretically substitute for mined copper — offers limited relief because China's domestic scrap availability is weak.
This reflects a copper market squeezed on three fronts at once: U.S. stockpiling, mine outages, and constrained scrap supply — leaving very little buffer for the rest of the world.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.