Goldman Sachs Recommends Buying Chinese AI Stocks as National Team Net Inflows Reach 260 Billion Yuan in Three Weeks
nashnova research
Goldman's Asia desk issued a "buy the dip" call on its China domestic AI basket — down 55% from its July peak — while state-backed funds pumped a net ¥260 billion into ETFs over three weeks, a three-year monthly high. Both forces point the same way: money is re-entering the China AI trade.
Why is Goldman calling a buy now?
Goldman's China domestic AI basket (ticker GSXACADO) has fallen roughly 55% from its July high. The team sees valuations at an entry zone.
The immediate catalyst came from the U.S. side: Oracle cancelled a ~$7 billion chip-leasing deal with Tencent over security concerns, and Nvidia reportedly told cloud clients to sell at least 51% of compute capacity to non-Chinese firms.
This means → Chinese cloud and AI companies are being pushed further toward domestic suppliers. Localisation is shifting from a theme to a necessity.
How did the market react on the day?
The Shanghai Composite rose 2.2% to 3,686, with AI stocks leading across the board.
Top movers: Everlight Electronics +13%, Zhongji Innolight +11%, Cambricon and Hygon each above +10%, NAURA +10%, SMIC +9%.
In plain terms = capital flooded into three lanes — chip design, chip manufacturing, and optical modules — the segments that benefit most directly from forced localisation.
How much did the National Team buy, and how?
Over the past three weeks, net inflows into the National Team's ten most-used ETFs totalled roughly ¥260 billion, the highest monthly buying level in nearly three years.
The heaviest flows went into the STAR 50 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF. The single-week peak hit ¥128.7 billion in the week of October 23 — the largest weekly inflow since the April "Liberation Day" market crash.
The National Team re-entered on October 23, when the CSI 300 had already slipped into bear-market territory, injecting roughly ¥84 billion via ETFs in a single day.
Is this buying spree large in historical context?
¥260 billion sounds massive, but in January the National Team withdrew roughly ¥935 billion from the same set of ETFs to cool an overheated market.
This means → the current buying recovers less than 30% of that earlier withdrawal.
In plain terms = the National Team still has significant room to add, and the market is nowhere near the overheated levels seen at the start of the year.
Beyond buying ETFs, what other policy moves were made?
Regulators convened a special meeting to restart the stock-buyback relending programme, after the CSI 300 fell 8.5% in October and logged 12 consecutive weekly declines.
A $15 billion swap facility was launched, letting brokerages and funds exchange assets for central-bank liquidity to buy equities.
Investment banks were reportedly told to halt new IPOs until the CSI 300 exits bear-market territory. This reflects regulators actively reducing supply-side pressure on the market.
What should investors watch next?
Goldman's summary: Chinese equities staged a sharp rebound driven by policy support, National Team buying, and a reignited localisation theme.
Two key questions remain: whether the National Team can keep directing flows specifically toward AI rather than just propping up the broad index, and whether the rally can shift from policy-driven to fundamentals-driven.
In plain terms = policy and capital have laid the floor. How high the building goes depends on whether corporate earnings can actually follow through.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。