Goldman Sachs Research: China's AI PCB Supply Chain Accelerates Ecosystem Migration to Thailand
Miles Bennett
After site visits to Shenghong Tech, WUS Printed Circuit, and Dingtai Hi-Tech, Goldman Sachs concludes that China's AI PCB supply chain has moved beyond isolated factory builds into full ecosystem migration in Thailand — and the driver is not lower cost but customers willing to pay a premium for supply-chain diversification.
Thailand costs more — so why move?
Shenghong Tech (胜宏科技) disclosed that its Thai plant's all-in production cost runs 10%–20% higher than mainland China, mainly because copper-clad laminates — the core PCB base material, copper foil bonded to resin — are still imported from China with tariffs above 10%, and local workers are less efficient.
This means → the migration is not about saving money. Customers are paying a premium for supply-chain diversification and global delivery capability.
The company's mid-term goal: raise automation, push laminate suppliers to localize in Thailand, and bring Thai-made margins back in line with mainland levels.
Shenghong has three Thai phases — which one is the real scale jump?
Thailand is split into phases A1, A2, A3. A1 is in mass production, contributing roughly 26% of 2025 revenue. A2 targets mass production in Q3 2026; A2 and A3 each carry 40%–100% more output than A1.
In plain terms = A1 proved the concept. A2 and A3 are the real scale story — per-plant output roughly doubles.
About 20% of A1 output is automotive PCB; the rest is reserved for AI PCBs, currently in customer qualification. This means → the Thai base is positioned not for low-end manufacturing but for high-spec AI PCB offshore mass production.
Goldman maintains a Buy rating with a 12-month target of RMB 550, implying 26.3× 2027 EPS. Revenue is forecast to grow from RMB 19.29 bn in 2025 to RMB 87.99 bn in 2028, with EPS rising from 4.98 to 27.58.
How far along is WUS Printed Circuit's Thai plant?
Q1 2026 utilization exceeded 90%, with net sales of RMB 295 mn — surpassing full-year 2025's RMB 289 mn. The plant has officially crossed from ramp-up into mass production.
Over 70% of overseas data-communications customers have completed Thai-plant qualification. This means → for high-end AI networking PCBs, customer qualification itself is a barrier; once passed, order conversion certainty is typically higher than for commodity consumer-electronics boards.
The Thai automotive unit began trial production in Q4 2025 and enters volume ramp in 2026, giving the Thai base both data-com and automotive customer pools and improving utilization stability.
Goldman maintains a Buy rating with a 12-month target of RMB 142. Revenue is forecast to rise from RMB 18.95 bn in 2025 to RMB 63.47 bn in 2028, EPS from 1.99 to 8.75. The share price at publication was RMB 137.30, implying roughly 3.4% nominal upside.
Why is a drill-bit supplier's expansion a "second-order" signal for PCB?
Dingtai Hi-Tech (鼎泰高科) makes PCB micro-drills — tiny bits that punch holes in circuit boards — along with milling cutters, automation gear, and coating materials. Demand rises only when production lines are actually running and output is genuinely climbing.
In plain terms = a board maker can announce expansion on paper, but rising drill-bit orders prove the machines are actually turning. That makes drill-bit demand a "second-order indicator" of PCB activity.
By April 2026, the Thai plant's monthly capacity had reached 6 million bits, with further ramp planned for H2. In the same month, the company announced a capital injection of up to RMB 300 mn into its Thai subsidiary.
Can Thailand evolve from isolated factories into a full regional supply chain?
The three reports point to one core question: board makers expanding (Shenghong, WUS) and consumable suppliers expanding in parallel (Dingtai) form a supply-chain loop — both moving in the same direction confirms that offshore real utilization is rising, not just planned.
This reflects a shift from "order insurance" toward a regional supply chain, but the key bottleneck remains upstream. Whether copper-clad laminates and other raw materials localize in Thailand will determine if offshore capacity can graduate from a cost-burdened insurance hedge into a genuine profit center.
Goldman's other Buy-rated names in the coverage include Shengyi Technology (生益科技) and Shennan Circuits (深南电路).
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.