Goldman Sachs Strategist: Chip Positioning Crowded, Recommends Rotating into Big Tech
Miles Bennett
Goldman strategist Mueller-Glissmann says the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up nearly 150% in a year and volatility is climbing — AI-trade capital should diversify from chipmakers into hyperscale cloud providers to cut concentration risk.
How far have chip stocks run — and where's the risk?
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rallied nearly 150% over the past year, making it one of the most crowded AI trades.
Chipmakers sit at the most volatile point in the AI capex chain, with elevated positioning and leverage — much of it through ETFs and options.
This means → if sentiment turns, chip stocks face outsized drawdowns precisely because positions are concentrated and leveraged.
Where should the money rotate?
Mueller-Glissmann's call is specific: diversify from semiconductors into hyperscale cloud providers.
That group includes Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle.
In plain terms = these companies bet on AI too, but their revenue is more diversified and less volatile than pure-play chipmakers.
Their shares have actually lagged recently — the market worried about excessive data-center capex.
What does the broader risk picture look like?
Goldman's risk-appetite indicator has risen sharply, first driven by AI capex boosting earnings, then by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Mueller-Glissmann calls the current setup a "Goldilocks zone" — inflation expectations falling while corporate earnings growth stays solid.
This reflects a rare window where macro conditions are neither too hot nor too cold.
Everyone is bullish — time to flip bearish?
Mueller-Glissmann cautions: positioning shows rising risk appetite and high bullish sentiment, but that alone is not a sell signal.
His words: "When everyone is bullish, it doesn't automatically mean you should be bearish."
This means → the real risk is not universal optimism itself — it is the moment markets start questioning the drivers. That is when pullbacks and corrections happen.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.