Goldman Sachs: Tesla Q2 Deliveries Expected to Beat Market Expectations, Forecast Raised to 420K Units
Taylor Wilson
Goldman raised its Tesla Q2 delivery forecast from 405,000 to 420,000, above the 400,000 Street consensus; Europe leads the rebound on strong year-on-year registrations, but the U.S. remains soft — this is a regional story, not a broad recovery.
How far above consensus is 420,000?
The Visible Alpha consensus sits at 400,000 units. Goldman previously forecast 405,000 and has now moved to 420,000.
This means → Goldman is 5% above the Street, a clearly bullish call.
The upgrade rests on monthly and weekly sell-through data across China, the U.S., and Europe — not model assumptions.
Which market is pulling the weight, and which is dragging?
Europe stands out: industry registration data through May shows the strongest year-on-year growth.
China has improved modestly, but the U.S. remains relatively weak.
In plain terms = this is not a "global recovery" story. Europe is carrying the load, China is helping at the margin, and the U.S. has not joined in.
Is the brand actually healing?
Goldman cites consumer surveys from Morning Consult and HundredX, tracking "net purchase consideration" and "net purchase intent."
Results show marginal improvement in brand perception, but the pace varies by region.
This means → the brand damage is easing, but it is far from over — recovery speed differs market by market.
Can oil prices keep boosting EV demand?
Google Trends data shows U.S. EV search volume rose briefly when oil prices climbed earlier this year, but has since pulled back.
In plain terms = high gas prices nudge consumers toward EVs, but once prices stabilize the interest fades — this is not a durable demand driver.
What does the SpaceX rally have to do with Tesla?
On the same day Goldman raised its Tesla forecast, SpaceX had surged roughly 20% the prior session and continued higher after hours.
VandaTrack data shows SpaceX was the top retail buy for two consecutive days, with net inflows approaching $100 million per day.
This reflects a broader refocusing of market attention on Musk-linked assets. If Tesla's delivery numbers come through, the sentiment tailwind could intensify.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.