Goldman Sachs: The Dollar Has Become an AI Trade Proxy, Potentially Seeing One Final Rally Before 2027
nashnova research
Goldman's FX strategy team says the dollar now moves in lockstep with AI-linked equities, trading at roughly 13% above fair value on a trade-weighted basis — but this rally may be the last leg before a material reversal by 2027.
How did the dollar become an AI proxy?
Goldman found that dollar moves are now highly correlated with AI-related stock performance — in both up and down markets.
The driver: foreign investors are piling into U.S. AI assets, sending a sustained wave of cross-border capital that directly lifts dollar demand.
This means → the dollar is no longer just a safe-haven currency. It has also become a cyclical bet on the AI narrative.
How overvalued is the dollar right now?
Goldman estimates the trade-weighted dollar is ~13% above fair value, up sharply from ~7% in September.
Against Asian currencies the premium is even steeper — roughly 25%, with almost no narrowing all year.
EUR/USD has fallen back to pre-"Liberation Day" levels, USD/JPY is pushing toward 160, and the dollar index has hit its highest since April 2025.
Three pillars hold the dollar up — which cracks first?
Goldman identifies three supports: sticky inflation, resilient energy prices, and surging AI capex expectations.
AI capex expectations are the linchpin — Goldman's economists expect them to show signs of peaking soon.
In plain terms = as long as markets believe U.S. companies will keep spending more on AI, capital keeps flowing in. Once that conviction wavers, the dollar's biggest engine stalls.
What risk is hiding inside foreign holdings?
Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos warns: of the $20 trillion-plus in U.S. equities held by foreigners, roughly 90% reflects price appreciation, not actual net purchases.
In plain terms = every $1 of actual buying corresponds to about $10 in potential selling exposure — and these positions are largely unhedged against currency moves.
MUFG data shows foreign investors bought a net $1.47 trillion in U.S. stocks and corporate bonds in the year through August — nearly double the pre-GFC peak.
This means → a shift in hedge ratios alone — no mass exodus required — could pressure the dollar significantly.
How long can the Fed's hawkish stance hold the line?
The Fed's persistently hawkish policy expectations are a key near-term tailwind, reinforced by recent above-consensus CPI prints.
In the short run, "solid economic activity, elevated inflation risks, and lingering political uncertainty" still support dollar strength against G10 peers.
This reflects a dual policy-and-data backstop for the dollar's near-term strength — but Goldman stresses the turn in these supports is a matter of when, not if.
What does the 2027 turning point actually look like?
Goldman's core call: when the AI narrative can no longer finance America's capital-account deficit, the dollar will have to adjust through depreciation.
At that point, investors will demand bigger price concessions — including via a weaker exchange rate — to keep funding an expanding deficit.
In plain terms = right now the world is willing to pay a premium for U.S. assets, so the dollar can stay expensive. Once the AI story loses its pull, the dollar has to cheapen to keep attracting capital. That inflection is the single most important test for FX markets in 2027.
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