Goldman Sachs: Triple Shock Convergence Keeps Upside Risks to Global Food Prices Alive
nashnova research
Wheat futures just hit a two-month low, yet Goldman's commodities team lists agriculture as one of three tactical reasons to hold commodities — geopolitical conflict, a likely super El Niño, and export curbs are stacking up, and the pullback does not mean the risk is gone.
Wheat just hit a two-month low — why is Goldman saying "don't relax"?
September U.S. corn supply-demand data came in looser than expected. Speculative longs unwound, and wheat futures fell to a two-month low.
Goldman calls this "risk premium being removed," not a fundamental improvement. This means → prices dropped, but none of the three underlying risks has left the building.
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index is still up roughly 19% year-to-date: soybean oil and sugar each +32%, wheat +31%, soymeal +29%, cotton +26%.
The Strait of Hormuz is choked — what does that have to do with food?
The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf — normally carries about one-third of global fertilizer exports. After disruptions, fertilizer shipments shrank sharply.
Volumes briefly rebounded to more than twice the 2025 average around the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, then fell back as tensions flared again. They remain far below normal.
In plain terms = fertilizer can't ship out → farmers pay more or can't get it → planting costs rise → food prices follow. The war is also pushing up diesel, raising costs across planting, harvesting, and transport.
Meanwhile, Brazil and India have raised ethanol-blending mandates, and Indonesia has increased palm-oil biodiesel blending requirements. This reflects governments diverting food crops to secure energy supply, squeezing the food side further.
Can Black Sea grain exports recover?
The Black Sea region typically accounts for 15%–20% of global grain trade. Ukrainian wheat exports briefly rebounded mid-year, then fell back below the 2022–2025 average.
Bloomberg reports that ongoing weekend strikes between Russia and Ukraine make any export-deal restart "increasingly unlikely."
Goldman believes the market is betting that other regions can fill the gap — but calls that view too optimistic. This means → if those other regions also run into trouble (see the next section), nobody can cover the Black Sea shortfall.
How likely is a super El Niño, and which regions would it hit?
Goldman cites the U.S. NOAA forecast: the probability of a super El Niño — defined as the Niño 3.4 index reaching +2.0 °C or above — stands at 81%, down from over 90% in September but still a better-than-four-in-five chance.
In plain terms = the strongest El Niño in roughly 75 years is highly likely, and it would hit multiple breadbaskets simultaneously.
The threat list: the U.S. corn-and-soy belt (about 40% of global corn exports, 20% of soybean exports) faces flooding; Brazil's corn-and-soy belt, Indian and Thai sugar and rice, West African cocoa, and Southeast Asian palm oil face drought; Panama Canal grain transit is also on the risk register.
The fourth risk: how much could "look after yourself first" policies amplify the shock?
Goldman flags a hidden multiplier: the global agricultural-trade landscape is becoming "increasingly inward-looking" — once countries sense a supply squeeze, they tend to restrict exports and stockpile preemptively.
This means → even if the raw supply gap is only X%, export curbs and hoarding can multiply the actual drop in tradeable volume several times over.
Goldman's core call: whether the triple supply shock — geopolitical, climatic, and energy-driven crop diversion — triggers a policy resonance is the key variable for the direction of food prices.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。