Goldman Sachs: U.S. Housing Market to Face Further Pressure in 2027
nashnova research
Goldman economist Ronnie Walker expects U.S. housing activity to weaken further in 2027 after three years of stagnation — the rate lock-in effect has made moving unaffordable for most homeowners, leaving both buyers and sellers stuck.
What exactly is holding the U.S. housing market back?
Housing starts and sales volume have been flat for three straight years, with mortgage rates stuck above 7%.
Walker notes rates have risen nearly 1.5 percentage points from their February low, squeezing affordability further.
This means → the market isn't in a temporary cool-down — it's locked in place by high rates, with buyers priced out and sellers unwilling to move.
What is the "rate lock-in effect," and why does it matter so much?
The rate lock-in effect — homeowners refusing to sell because they'd lose a cheap mortgage — is the market's core structural barrier.
Over 95% of mortgage borrowers hold rates below today's market level; 65% are more than 2 percentage points below.
In plain terms = millions locked in ultra-low rates during 2020–2021. Selling now means giving up that cheap loan and taking on a much more expensive one — potentially hundreds or thousands of dollars more per month. So most people simply stay put.
What is Goldman's specific forecast?
Goldman projects roughly 3.9 million existing-home sales in 2027, slightly below 2026 and about 26% below 2019 levels.
This means → Goldman doesn't just expect no rebound — it sees volume slipping further, still far from pre-pandemic norms.
Is there any relief on either the supply or demand side?
Supply: inventory has risen somewhat but remains tight by historical standards; adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs — loans whose rate floats with the market) account for only about 8% of outstanding mortgages.
Demand: demographics and real-income growth offer tailwinds, but survey-based buying intentions have dropped sharply in recent months, and reduced immigration is slowing household formation.
This reflects a market with no clear exit — positive signals are offset by negative ones, leaving the stalemate intact.
How is the capital market pricing this in?
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF is down 9% year-to-date; the iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF has fallen 24%.
This means → markets are already pricing in prolonged weakness, with the deepest losses in sectors tied directly to mortgage activity.
Goldman's bottom line is clear: any recovery hinges on when mortgage rates come down meaningfully — until then, affordability pressure won't ease.
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