Goldman Sachs Warns: Europe May Face Dual Diesel and Natural Gas Shortages in Winter 2026
Alina Collins
Goldman Sachs commodities co-head Samantha Dart issued back-to-back warnings — European gas storage trails the seasonal average by 18 percentage points, and global diesel supply is her "top worry." Both shortfalls are converging on winter 2026, threatening another round of energy price spikes.
How far behind is European gas storage?
European gas storage sits at roughly 57.87%, about 18 percentage points below the 2009–2025 seasonal average.
In July, European LNG — liquefied natural gas, chilled into liquid form for ocean shipping — imports fell short of expectations by an annualised 2.1 million tonnes, leaving month-end storage at just 43% versus a forecast of 45.5%.
This means → Europe is not "slightly below normal." It is visibly behind on the restocking track and must accelerate injections over the coming months to close the gap.
Can Europe restock in time — and where would supply come from?
Dart says Europe must push storage to 67% by the end of October. The window is tight.
Three potential supply lines: Qatar ramping up exports, weaker Asian spot demand freeing up cargoes, and Egypt cutting imports to release LNG shipments.
The catch: if the European benchmark gas price TTF drops too early, LNG cargoes get redirected to higher-paying Asian buyers. In plain terms = Europe restocks by outbidding others; the moment its price dips, the ships sail elsewhere.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz the swing variable?
Dart's risk assessment for winter TTF prices skews clearly to the upside. The swing variable is the Strait of Hormuz — roughly a third of global oil and a large share of LNG transit through it.
Bear case: Middle East energy exports recover only slowly and disruptions extend into 2027 → December TTF may need to breach €100/MWh, about 110% above the €50 base case, to price Asian buyers out.
Bull case: strait transit resumes faster than expected → TTF could fall to around €40/MWh, roughly 20% below the base case.
This reflects a deeper point: European energy pricing is not just about domestic inventories — it is directly set by a shipping lane thousands of miles away. Geopolitical risk is the price-setter.
Could diesel and gas run short at the same time?
Dart explicitly flagged tight global diesel supply as her "top worry," ranking it alongside the gas shortfall.
Her assessment: if the Hormuz disruption persists, Europe could enter winter with both gas and diesel inventories well below seasonal norms.
This means → the risk is not a single-commodity price swing. Two core energy inputs — heating gas and transport fuel — could tighten simultaneously, laying the groundwork for a fresh round of energy-driven inflation.
How should we read Goldman's current price forecast?
Dart maintains her Q3-end TTF average forecast of €60/MWh, yet benchmark TTF futures slid roughly 7% this week to about €54.
In plain terms = the market is trading the "summer demand lull" right now; Goldman is saying "don't be fooled by the dip — the winter arithmetic is still unfinished."
This reflects a time-horizon gap between Goldman and the market: the market is pricing this month's supply and demand; Goldman is pricing the storage deficit four to five months out.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.