Half-glass of Starship V3's maiden flight, IPO outlook多云s uncertainty

Local time Friday at 18:30, SpaceX's latest iteration of the Starship rocket V3 took off from the Starbase launch site in Texas, conducting the 12th test flight of the Starship series. The upper spacecraft Ship 39 successfully reached space, deployed 22 simulated Starlink satellites, and smoothly re-entered the atmosphere and splashed down into the Indian Ocean, the whole process taking about an hour. However, the lower-stage Super Heavy booster failed to complete its return burn as planned and crashed uncontrollably into the Gulf of Mexico.

This flight revealed two engine failures: one out of 33 engines on the Super Heavy booster failed during the ascent, and similarly, one out of the 6 engines on the upper spacecraft stopped working en route. The spacecraft compensated for the loss of power by extending the burn time with the remaining 5 engines. SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot stated in the live broadcast that the trajectory of the spacecraft was "within an acceptable range," but "not a nominal orbit entry." Due to the engine failure, SpaceX canceled the planned in-space reignition test of the Raptor engines, which is a crucial validation of a key technology for decoupling from orbit during future orbital missions.

SpaceX describes the V3 version of Starship as "almost a different rocket." The core upgrades include: adopting a new, lighter yet more powerful version of the Raptor engine; changing the number of grid fins on the booster from 4 to 3 larger ones to optimize re-entry guidance performance; and adding docking hardware and a propellant transfer system to the upper spacecraft, laying the groundwork for future lunar and deep space missions. The main goal of this flight was to verify these new systems in a flight environment for the first time.

The Ship 39 successfully deployed all 22 simulated satellites in space, with a significantly faster deployment speed than previous models. Among them, two improved satellites, internally referred to as "Dodger Dogs" by SpaceX, were equipped with cameras to capture the Starship in flight in space, testing technologies related to the next generation of Starlink satellites. If subsequent progress goes smoothly, the 13th test flight could be the first true orbital flight of the Starship.

The mixed results of this flight coincide with a sensitive juncture as SpaceX prepares for the largest IPO in history. The company plans to go public as early as June, with a potential financing scale of $50 billion to $75 billion. The current valuation of $125 billion is partly based on the grand vision of Starship carrying out orbital data centers, manned lunar landings, and even Mars missions in the future. However, SpaceX's financial data disclosed last week showed that the company had a net loss of over $4.9 billion last year, with the space operations division operating at a loss of $657 million. Booster recovery failures and skipped test objectives will make investors more cautious in judging the commercialization timetable of the Starship.

The progress of Starship is also affecting NASA's Artemis lunar landing plans. NASA has commissioned SpaceX to provide a modified version of the Starship as a manned lunar lander; however, due to the ongoing lag in development progress, NASA made major adjustments to the plan in February, with the Artemis III mission no longer attempting a lunar landing, and the first lunar landing target postponed until the Artemis IV mission in 2028. Analysts point out that if the Starship suffers another significant failure, it will have a cascading impact on the entire manned lunar landing program.