HK-Listed Brokerages Report Across-the-Board H1 Profit Surges as Buyback and Stake-Raising Signals Intensify
Nashnova编辑部
All 17 listed brokerages that reported H1 forecasts guided higher, with multiple top-tier firms topping RMB 10 billion in net profit; major shareholders and firms are buying back stock en masse, yet sector valuations remain below historical averages.
How strong are the H1 results?
As of end-July, 17 listed brokerages have issued H1 earnings guidance — every single one guided higher, spanning top-tier, mid-tier, and smaller firms.
CITIC Securities expects H1 net profit of RMB 23.3 billion, up 69.5% year-on-year. Guotai Junan Haitong guides RMB 20.0–20.5 billion, up 27–30%, with Q2 profit doubling quarter-on-quarter.
China Merchants Securities crossed RMB 10 billion in half-year profit for the first time, guiding RMB 10.0–11.0 billion, up 93–112%. GF Securities guides RMB 11.0–12.0 billion; CICC RMB 7.7–8.2 billion; CSC RMB 7.2–8.1 billion.
This means → profit growth at the top names far exceeds prior market expectations, and industry concentration is rising on the earnings side.
How are smaller brokerages performing?
TF Securities expects H1 net profit growth of 429–694% year-on-year — the widest gain in the sector.
Xiangcai Co., Huachuang Yunxin, Zhongtai Securities, Huaan Securities, Caida Securities, and Huaxi Securities all guided for at least a doubling in net profit.
In plain terms = this is not a big-firm-only story. Smaller brokerages are riding the same wave, which signals a sector-wide cyclical upturn rather than company-specific luck.
What does the buyback and stake-increase wave signal?
Soochow Securities' controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake by RMB 100–200 million; Industrial Securities' shareholder plans an increase of RMB 30–60 million.
Changjiang Securities plans to buy back RMB 100–200 million in shares with its own funds; Huaan Securities and Sinolink Securities are also executing buybacks.
This means → major shareholders and companies alike are spending real money on their own stock. The core logic is simple: they believe the current share price undervalues the business.
Where exactly is the valuation discount?
The sector's average price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 1.26–1.30x, well below the 1.52x historical average since 2016.
Over 60% of individual stocks trade below the sector average valuation.
In plain terms = brokerages are earning significantly more, yet share prices have not caught up — profits are surging while valuations sit below long-run norms. That gap is what analysts call "repair potential."
What do analysts see ahead?
Huaxi Securities analyst Luo Huizhou notes that active equity funds remain significantly underweight the non-bank financial sector (financial institutions outside banks — brokerages and insurers), and sees upside as capital markets stay active and longer-term money enters the market.
The Guotai Junan Haitong team led by Liu Xinqi argues that after the recent selloff in high-valuation tech names, capital is rotating toward low-valuation, underweight sectors. Insurers are benefiting first; brokerages are next in line, with top-tier names especially worth watching.
This reflects a broader style rebalancing — from expensive growth to cheap value — and brokerages happen to sit directly in the path of that capital rotation.
What is the new policy variable?
Four government bodies jointly issued guidelines on financial-institution governance, covering banks, insurers, and securities firms. The document lays out 22 measures targeting completion by 2029.
The core thrust: prevent controlling-shareholder misconduct and insider control, and strengthen "look-through" supervision — where regulators trace through ownership layers to identify the ultimate controller — plus early risk intervention.
This means → in the short term, tighter regulation; but the medium-to-long-term logic runs better governance → lower risk premium → higher valuation floor. Whether this policy delivers real results will be the key test of whether the sector's valuation repair can sustain.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.