HK-Listed Brokerages See Divergent H1 Results as Industry Concentration Accelerates
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Hong Kong-listed Chinese brokerages posted record first-half 2026 earnings — Guotai Junan Securities (国泰海通) crossed RMB 20 billion in net profit — but the gap between top and bottom players is widening fast.
How much did the top brokerages actually earn?
Guotai Junan Securities expects H1 net profit of RMB 20.0–20.5 billion, up 27–30% year-on-year — the first brokerage to cross the RMB 20 billion mark in a single half-year.
China Merchants Securities expects H1 net profit above RMB 10 billion, also a record for the period.
CICC (中金公司) expects RMB 7.7–8.2 billion, up 78–90% year-on-year. This means → profit is concentrating at the top at an accelerating pace.
Where is the money coming from — what are the three growth drivers?
Sci-tech investment: IPO issuance is recovering and the STAR board is heating up, fueling profits in investment banking, direct investment, and alternative investing — essentially brokerages putting their own capital into deals.
International operations: three leading brokerages announced capital injections for overseas expansion in H1; offshore subsidiaries are rapidly increasing leverage. In plain terms = the big players are betting more capital on markets outside mainland China.
Wealth management: a stronger market lifts brokerage commissions, margin lending, product distribution, and asset management. Active equity funds are generating sustained returns, which should drive further gains in product market share.
How fast is the whole industry growing?
CICC analyst Wang Siyue estimates that 42 listed brokerages will post a 50% year-on-year rise in H1 net profit, driven by the same three pillars — sci-tech, international, and wealth.
This means → sector-wide profit growth is at a multi-year high, but that "50%" is an average — the top players are growing far faster, and the laggards drag the number down.
Profits are surging — why haven't share prices kept up?
CITIC Securities Construction's Zhao Ran argues that H1 earnings beat expectations, with M&A integration and sci-tech business lifting ROE — return on equity, how much profit each dollar of shareholder capital generates — structurally higher. He sees significant room for valuation repair.
GF Securities' Chen Fu agrees: earnings momentum is strong, but valuations have lagged. As incremental capital enters the market and mutual funds tighten performance-benchmark discipline, brokerage valuations and institutional holdings have room to rise.
Put simply = earnings have moved up; prices have not. Both analysts see this gap as a catch-up opportunity.
In a diverging industry, which brokerages deserve attention?
Soochow Securities' Sun Ting is explicit: concentration at the top is irreversible, and tail-end players are being squeezed out faster.
Large, full-service brokerages are doubling down on capital-heavy, institutional, and cross-border business tracks. Regional mid-sized brokerages are digging into local resources, building "small but specialized" boutique capabilities.
This reflects an industry shifting from a broad rally to a stock-picking market — each brokerage's ability to deliver on earnings relative to its current valuation will be the key variable going forward.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.