Hormuz Deal Still Elusive as Brent Crude Rises for Third Straight Day Past $84
Taylor Wilson
Talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Brent crude rose to $84.59 a barrel on Monday, extending a three-session gain past 5% — as long as the strait stays shut, the fear premium baked into oil prices is not going away.
How much has oil risen — and why is it still climbing?
Brent crude gained 1% to $84.59 a barrel during Monday's Singapore session. Over the past three trading days, the cumulative rally has exceeded 5%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate — the American benchmark — rose 1% in step, to $79.08 a barrel.
This means → the market is pricing in a sustained "strait-still-closed" premium. Until negotiations produce a result, traders default to assuming supply risk persists.
Iran says a deal is "very close" — so why aren't prices falling?
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said over the weekend that Iran and Oman are "very close" to an agreement on strait shipping arrangements.
But he warned: even if a deal is signed, it will not reopen the waterway immediately. In plain terms = "close to signing" and "ships can pass" are two different things, separated by the time it takes to actually implement.
He also said Iran currently rules out direct talks with the U.S., citing Washington's violation of a June ceasefire memorandum. This means → the two parties who could actually resolve the crisis are, for now, not at the same table.
Trump suddenly goes "low-key" — what does the market make of it?
President Trump told reporters Sunday that the U.S. is taking a "low-key" approach to Hormuz, after weeks of threatening strikes on Iran.
The market read: the probability of a near-term military escalation has edged down.
But the geopolitical risk premium — the extra cost baked into oil because of political tension — has not faded. "Low-key" does not mean "resolved"; it just turns the volume down for now.
What else in the Middle East is keeping markets on edge?
Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery — the second strike on that facility in under two weeks.
Separately, a tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
This reflects a reality: even while major powers negotiate, proxy forces are not slowing their pace of attacks. The threat to energy infrastructure is tangible and does not pause for diplomacy.
How hard are Iran's conditions to meet?
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has set three conditions for reopening the strait: U.S. military withdrawal from the region, war reparations, and lifting of sanctions.
President Masoud Pezeshkian called this "the best time for a deal," but any single one of those three conditions is extremely difficult to deliver in the short term.
In plain terms = Iran is sending goodwill signals while handing the other side a bill that is nearly impossible to pay right away. The core gap has not closed; negotiations have a long road ahead.
What does this mean for ordinary people?
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply. A continued blockade effectively cuts global energy flow by 20%.
This means → the geopolitical risk premium on oil is unlikely to fade soon. Downstream costs — gasoline, jet fuel, petrochemical feedstocks — will keep feeling the pressure.
The single key variable: when the strait actually reopens for shipping. By Iran's own foreign minister's account, even a signed deal would not make that happen right away.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.