Hormuz Shipping Uncertainty Pushes European TTF Natural Gas Prices Up Over 5%
Miles Bennett
The Dutch TTF benchmark jumped 5.7% to €58.80 per megawatt-hour as unresolved uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz — combined with a European storage shortfall — forced the market to price in winter-supply risk.
Why did gas prices spike nearly 6% in a single session?
The trigger is persistent uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and open sea that carries roughly a fifth of global LNG shipments.
This means → the market is not trading a blockade; it is trading the inability to know when normal shipping resumes. Uncertainty itself is the premium.
How wide is Europe's storage gap?
ANZ analysts flag that European gas storage sits at just 58%, well below the seasonal norm of roughly 70% — a gap of about 12 percentage points.
In plain terms = winter is still months away, yet inventories are already far behind the usual pace. Any fresh supply risk gets amplified.
This reflects Europe's rising dependence on alternative gas sources after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leaving less room for error in the restocking cycle.
Will prices fall back once the strait reopens?
ANZ analysts stress that even after a reopening, shipping companies will need to see a sustained period of calm before resuming voyages through the waterway.
This means → there is a confidence lag between a political "all-clear" and actual cargo flows — supply recovery will trail expectations.
In plain terms = downside room for gas prices remains limited in the near term. A single headline reading "strait reopens" will not bring prices back overnight.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.