Hormuz Toll Risk Spreads to the Strait of Malacca
Taylor Wilson
Iran's push to co-manage and toll the Strait of Hormuz has investors eyeing the world's top oil chokepoint — the Strait of Malacca — as the next candidate for the same model, though international law and a four-nation patrol regime stand in the way.
What just happened at the Strait of Hormuz?
Under a memorandum of understanding signed last month, ships may transit Hormuz freely for 60 days; after that, governance and maritime services will be defined jointly by Iran and Oman.
Hormuz normally carries about 20% of global seaborne oil.
This means → Iran is trying to turn an international waterway into a managed, tollable corridor — virtually unprecedented in the post-war maritime order.
Why is Malacca being dragged into this?
Janiv Shah, VP of commodity markets at Rystad Energy, told CNBC that some investors are already "a little nervous" about a Malacca "tollbooth."
His logic: if the Hormuz model sticks, the highest-volume chokepoint is the obvious next target.
The numbers back this up — in H1 2025, Malacca handled 29% of global seaborne oil flows; crude alone accounts for over 70% of the strait's annual oil traffic.
This means → a Malacca toll would hit not just crude prices but the entire Asian energy supply chain.
Has anyone already tried to toll Malacca?
In April, Indonesia's finance minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa floated a transit fee for passing ships — then quickly walked it back.
In plain terms = even a littoral state's own trial balloon deflated fast, signaling heavy political resistance.
What makes Malacca fundamentally different from Hormuz?
Hunter Marston, Southeast Asia director at the Lowy Institute, noted that Malacca fits the "chokepoint" definition but is not a conflict flashpoint.
The key reason: the Malacca Strait Patrol (MSP) — a four-nation regime run by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand — keeps the waterway open to global trade.
Marston's words: "Without this mechanism, the Strait of Malacca would be as vulnerable as the Strait of Hormuz."
This reflects that a multilateral security architecture is the real moat keeping Malacca from being weaponized.
Does international law allow strait tolls?
No. Imposing tolls on a strait used for international navigation is illegal; international law guarantees the right of free passage.
After a meeting in Jakarta, Indonesian President Prabowo and Singapore PM Lawrence Wong both reaffirmed their commitment to unimpeded transit.
In plain terms = the legal and diplomatic "double lock" still holds — but only as long as littoral states keep honoring it.
Where does the real risk lie?
CSIS analysts argue that Iran's moves have already shown that controlling a maritime chokepoint can "significantly enhance" a nation's power and deterrence.
CSIS also warns: strategic risk in the South China Sea is even higher.
This means → a Malacca toll is unlikely in the near term, but once the Hormuz model is normalized, the logic of "whoever controls the waterway collects the toll" will spread to more chokepoints — and that is the deepest pricing risk for energy markets.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.