Hormuz Transit Plunges to 33 Vessels as Iran-Oman Negotiations Stall
Claire Weston
Only 33 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz from Monday to Thursday, down sharply from 50 in the same period last week; Iran-Oman transit talks have stalled over sanctions and payment obstacles, leaving the world's most critical oil chokepoint half-paralyzed.
How bad is 33 vessels?
In normal times the strait sees roughly 130–140 ships per week. This means → the first four days of this week ran at less than a quarter of normal volume.
On Thursday just 4 ships transited, including the VLCC *Nissos Kea* carrying about 2 million barrels of Basra crude loaded in Iraq.
In plain terms = about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil moves through this waterway, and right now it is barely a trickle.
Why is the strait closed?
Iran shut Hormuz after the U.S.–Israel war broke out on February 28 this year.
Iran and Oman are negotiating a framework that would give Tehran control over which ships enter the Gulf. In plain terms = Iran wants to trade "passage rights" for bargaining leverage.
The deal is stuck on money — U.S. sanctions and insurance clauses make the payment mechanism unworkable. Industry insiders say the proposal has limited viability.
Iraq is offering ~$30 discounts — why no takers?
Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has offered August-loading buyers discounts of nearly $30 per barrel. Refiners in China and India have shown interest.
Yet according to shipping sources, not a single vessel has signed a charter. This means → no matter how steep the discount, the deal cannot close if shipowners refuse to enter the strait.
This reflects a market where safety fears over Hormuz transit now outweigh the pull of price.
What is happening on the Red Sea side?
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait — the other key shipping corridor linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden — has picked up: 26 ships transited Thursday, up from 19 the day before.
LSEG, using a different tracking methodology, recorded 28 vessels, confirming the trend.
This means → some shipping is rerouting away from Hormuz via the Red Sea alternative, though the Red Sea's own security risks have not fully cleared.
What to watch next?
The key variable is singular: whether shipowner caution begins to ease.
For that to happen, the Iran-Oman talks need substantive progress and a workable payment channel — only then will owners reassess the risk of entering the strait.
In plain terms = if talks don't move, ships don't move; and if ships don't move, pressure on oil prices and freight rates keeps building.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.