Hormuz Transit Volume Stays in Single Digits as Saudi Tanker Intercepted by Iran
nashnova research
Only 5 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday — far below the 10-day average of 14 — with zero oil tankers transiting; a Saudi tanker was then intercepted by Iran on Tuesday, confirming the chokepoint that carries a fifth of global oil remains near-blockaded.
How shut is Hormuz right now?
Monday saw just 4 inbound and 1 outbound vessel, roughly matching the weekend.
The 10-day average is about 14 vessels; current flow is under 40% of normal.
This means → the strait has moved beyond a one-day disruption into a sustained near-blockade pattern.
What actually got through — any tankers?
Of the 4 inbound ships, 1 was a small, empty gas carrier arriving via the Iranian-side lane; the other 3 were laden dry-bulk vessels.
Zero liquid oil tankers transited all day — the most critical signal.
In plain terms = dry bulk (ore, grain) is still trickling through, but oil shipping has stopped entirely — tanker owners or insurers still judge the risk unacceptable.
What does the Saudi tanker interception signal?
On Tuesday a Saudi oil tanker was intercepted by Iran while transiting the southern lane — typically considered the safer, Oman-side route.
This reflects that even the "avoid-Iran" corridor now carries real interception risk.
This means → confidence in resuming tanker traffic will be further suppressed, keeping the crude risk premium elevated.
Why is Bab el-Mandeb still open?
Bab el-Mandeb logged 27 transits over the same period, a three-day high; 5 were Aframax or Suezmax crude tankers.
Yet no VLCCs or LNG carriers passed through there either.
In plain terms = Bab el-Mandeb is "half-open" — mid-size ships are willing to run it, but the largest tankers and gas carriers are still holding back. Hormuz, by contrast, has virtually no traffic at all — a far deeper blockage.
How reliable are these numbers?
Data comes from shipping tracker Kpler. Vessels that switch off their AIS transponders — the automatic identification system that makes a ship visible on tracking screens — are not counted.
This means → actual traffic may be slightly higher than reported, but even with under-counting the gap between single digits and a 14-vessel average is too wide to explain away.
The core test stands: when Hormuz returns to normal flow is the key checkpoint for whether the crude risk premium can meaningfully unwind.
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