HSBC Estimates SpaceX Lock-Up Period: First Batch of 912M Shares to Unlock on August 6
N.R. Finch
HSBC calculates that 912 million SpaceX shares unlock on August 6, lifting the free float from 4.9% to 11.8% — the largest single supply shock since the IPO, and whether holders actually sell will determine if the stock can stabilize.
How large is the August 6 unlock?
HSBC estimates roughly 912 million shares become eligible for sale on August 6, 2026 — two days after SpaceX publishes its first quarterly earnings.
After the unlock, the free float expands from about 639 million shares to a 11.8% float ratio, up from 4.9% today.
This means → tradable shares will more than double overnight, with supply pressure concentrated in a single window.
What other unlock triggers lie ahead?
A second tranche may unlock on the same day — if SpaceX closes above $175.50 on at least 5 of 10 consecutive trading days between July 22 and August 4.
In plain terms = a rising stock price would paradoxically "unlock" more shares for sale — the higher it climbs, the larger the potential overhang.
HSBC's report maps out several additional time- and price-based unlock triggers, forming a full supply-pressure roadmap.
How many shares are still locked up?
Approximately 4.678 billion shares are currently locked, with another 8.16 billion under longer-term lock-up agreements.
These restricted shares are held by funds and individuals from private funding rounds; HSBC believes they may be inclined to hold.
This means → an unlock is not the same as a sell-off, but 4.678 billion shares of potential selling pressure hang over the market and warrant close monitoring.
How is the market reacting right now?
SpaceX shares dipped to around $108 in Monday's early session, hovering near the historic low range of $108–$110.21; the company's bonds also came under pressure.
A bullish note from Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu — calling Starship Flight 13 evidence of "solid progress" — failed to lift sentiment.
This reflects a market focused squarely on supply-side risk: at least one institutional trading desk said it plans to wait until after the lock-up expires before building a position.
What to watch after August 6?
Whether the unlock triggers real selling pressure depends on holders' actual willingness to sell.
In plain terms = the unlock only means shares are "allowed to be sold" — the real test is how many holders choose to sell.
This will be the key validation point for whether SpaceX's post-IPO stock price can stabilize.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.